20 teams with a shot at the Final Four

Regardless of brackets and seeding and everything else, time to take a look at 20 teams that have a realistic shot at the Final Four. Here they are below in reverse order:

20. St John's - Peaked a little too early, a bit too strong at home, and now DJ Kennedy is out for the year with that torn ACL. Talented team but would need to catch a lot of breaks.

19. Washington - Super talented team that has not really put everything together yet but seems to be getting there at just the right time. Will have to overcome a pretty tough path though.

18. San Diego St - They'll have a nice path. But they have a whopping total of 0 tourney wins in history.

17. UConn - Kemba is a beast but he just can't do it all on his own. UConn is going to get an overrated seed and overmatched expectations. They had their fun already.

16. BYU - Go Jimmer, but like UConn, he can only do so much. Still, he COULD send them to a Final Four in a perfect run like Steph Curry had a few years ago. But otherwise sex cost this team a spot in my top five. Hope it was worth it.

15. Notre Dame - That's right, one of my #1 seeds. Still below average on defense, over relient on 3 point shooting. Can't be perfect on offense every game.

14. Louisville - Just looks like another Lville squad, a very tough out and a tough team to match up with but too inconsistent to make a really long run.

13. Kentucky - Uber talented, sky is the limit with these youngsters, but this is another one of those Coach Cal teams and I have learned my lesson with them. Heartbreak to come.

12. Arizona - If I'm going to rely on one guy to do it all, I'd rather it be Derrick Williams. And I don't mind putting some eggs into Sean Miller's basket either.

11. Kansas St - I know the seed won't be great, and the path will be tough. But Pullen is playing like a POY contender and the early season woes are long past. Might be hard to overcome their path but not a team folks want in their quadrant.

10. Wisconsin - It's an ugly team like usual but man is this team efficient, and they are pretty tough to match up with too. They play so slow and deliberate, they don't turn the ball over, and they are going to be really tough for anyone to beat, especially some of the highly ranked very young teams without big time experience.

9. Texas - As talented as any team in the country, but they seem to have peaked about a month ago and have this knack for playing down to the competition. I have a name for that "knack." I call it Rick Barnes. He might be too much for Jordan Hamilton to overcome.

8. Purdue - Etwaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson are a pretty awesome 1-2 punch, and they bring great senior leadership to the squad as well. I'm a big believer in Matt Painter, and I believe this team can absolutely make a run to the Final Four.

7. Florida - This team started slow but is absolutely rolling since, and Billy Donovan knows what strings to pull. Parsons is the real deal, and Florida will be a very dangerous 3 or 4 seed in the right bracket draw.

6. UNC - Talentwise, this team can absolutely hang with anyone in the country. Since Marshall took over the PG duties, Harrison Barnes seems to have come into his own as well, and no other team in the country has a 1-2 punch like that. I'd have them at #2 if this team wasn't so young and played like it at times.

5. Syracuse - My favorite non-1-seed team right now. Boeheim's boys always play well at tourney time. They have been there before, they're a deep team, they play terrific defense, and now star freshman recruit Fab Melo seems to have turned the corner just in time. Easily my second best Big East squad heading into the bracket.

4. Duke - Not a complete believer here. Over relient on Nolan Smith with Singler taking a step back, and over relient on 3 point shooting as well. But I can't escape that it seems likely they'll be in a bracket with ND or SD St as the top other seed and that gives them a path where possibly only one team can really give them a game.

3. Pitt - Very talented all around team. Probably better on offense than defense, surprising for Pitt, but solid at both. Nothing feels special about this team, they're just really really hard to beat. Someone will have to play perfect to get em.

2. Kansas - This is the only team that has a shot of beating the Buckeyes if they're playing at 100%. KU is the most talented team and I rank them with a great shot at the Final Four, even with Bill Self weighing them down like usual.

1. Ohio St - This is the best team in the nation, and it doesn't look entirely close right now. They are great on both ends, and they have a whole bunch of guys who can step up and score. They're the favorite going in, and they should be.

Mock bracket

Happy Bracket Day!!! So exciting. Some crazy finishes yesterday and some other big results. San Diego St dominated BYU from start to finish. I'll give them a 4 seed and even a spot out west but they have just that one win over a top 35 team (and who knows what BYU is right now anyway?) so I can't put them higher than that. Kansas dominates Texas and could get the #1 overall seed with Ohio St's game in question today. Princeton breaks Harvard hearts everywhere. Penn St moves to the Big 10 final, secures their bid, and actually moves up to the #5 of 7 Big 10 tourney teams. UConn outlasts Lville in the Big East. Will be interesting to see how the committee ranks those two teams and Syracuse, ie how much stock it puts into this last week. I have Lville as a 2 and both UConn and Cuse as 3s in that order.

We have two great games on tap today, but I don't expect either to affect seeding much. Duke-UNC should be fantastic, but I have both teams locked in at 2 seeds with their only good win against each other. Kentucky-Florida should also be a lot of fun. I have Florida more deserving of a 3, UK a 5, but I have both as a 4 to make things easy today. Florida had a rough start but has really dominated the SEC. They could easily be a 2 seed if there was a better perception of the SEC this year. That being said, I have Duke and Kentucky winning these games today, Richmond winning the A10 (otherwise Dayton steals USC's spot), and Ohio St rolls easily.

I made a mock bracket. I used the teams and seeds I have mostly but tried to predict what the committee would do, ie moved a couple teams up or down as I think they are viewed. I did NOT give George Mason a spot though. Still just not a believer.

MIDWEST
1 Ohio St vs 16 Hampton
8 Xavier vs 9 Villanova
5 St Johns vs 12 Georgia / USC
4 BYU vs 13 Oakland
6 UCLA vs 11 St Mary's
3 Syracuse vs 14 Indiana St
7 Georgetown vs 10 Old Dominion
2 UNC vs 15 Long Island

My picks... Ohio St over Xavier, Oakland over Georgia, Cuse over St Marys, UNC over ODU... Ohio St over Syracuse

SOUTH
1 Kansas vs 16 UNC Asheville
8 Tennessee vs 9 Marquette
5 West Virginia vs 12 Virginia Tech / Alabama
4 Kentucky vs 13 Princeton
6 Cincinnati vs 11 Colorado
3 Purdue vs 14 Boston U
7 Washington vs 10 Belmont
2 Louisville vs 15 St Peters

My picks... Kansas over Marq, UK over WVa, Purdue over Colorado, Belmont over Lville... Purdue over Kansas

EAST
1 Pitt vs 16 Alabama St / UC Santa Barbara
8 Temple vs 9 Gonzaga
5 Kansas St vs 12 Memphis
4 Wisconsin vs 13 Bucknell
6 Texas A&M vs 11 Illinois
3 UConn vs 14 Akron
7 UNLV vs 10 Florida St
2 Texas vs 15 Morehead St

My picks... Pitt over Gonzaga, Wisc over K St, UConn over A&M, UNLV over Texas... Pitt over UNLV

WEST
1 Notre Dame vs 16 UT San Antonio / Ark Little Rock
8 Michigan St vs 9 Utah St
5 Arizona vs 12 Michigan
4 Florida vs 13 Butler
6 Vandy vs 11 Richmond
3 San Diego St vs 14 Wofford
7 Mizzou vs 10 Penn St
2 Duke vs 15 N Colorado

My picks... NDame over Utah St, Florida over Arizona, Vandy over SD St, Duke over Penn St... Duke over Florida

Final Four... Ohio St over Duke, Pitt over Purdue... Ohio St wins!

College hoops: Conference finals

Big couple days of hoops here as we get about 15-20 bids sorted out still. It's not that ambiguous, I'm just too lazy to count. There are a bunch of random championship games that are all one bid leagues and low seeds, but a couple are worth noting before we talk about the big boys and what's at stake there...

Ivy - Play-in game between Harvard and Princeton today. Princeton won at home by 4, then Harvard won by 12 at home a week ago. Now the rematch at Yale. Should be a dandy. Harvard hasnt been dancing in 50 years. Just feels right. Harvard has a looongshot at large profile if they lose but I just don't see them getting in over someone like Alabama or Clemson sadly.

C-USA - Memphis vs UTEP in the final today. Top seed UAB lost to the 8 seed. I just see a lot of mediocrity here and absolutely a one bid league. The top nonconference wins are over teams like Gonzaga and Michigan, and there are plenty of questionable losses. I like UTEP since they're playing at home. It will just be wrong if Memphis or UAB steals someone's bid.

Atlantic 10 - It's the semi finals today. One matchup pits Temple vs Richmond, both teams safely in at this point. Richmond is near the edge but will either win beat Temple and be in easily or get a worthy loss and still be in. The only thing worth noting is the other side of the matchup, St Joe's (the 12 seed) vs Dayton. Neither of those teams has a shot but one of them will be playing for a bid tomorrow and could still a spot. I like Temple to take care of business like usual.

Big 10 - After a gross Friday of upsets, we don't have much drama left here. It's almost certain #1 and Big 10 champ Ohio St... along with three other teams who won't give them more of a speed bump this weekend but who all secured their spots with nice upset victories yesterday: Michigan, Michigan St, and Penn St. Huge day for the Big 10, who end up with 7 of their 11 teams dancing, though both Wisconsin and Purdue fall a seed after yesterday. Some might still have Penn St near the bubble so a win today couldn't hurt.

SEC - The top four teams from conference play remain so it should be a good finish. It's UK-Bama on one half and Florida-Vandy on the other. I think Florida or UK move up to a 3 seed if they win it. Vandy won't but could go up to a 5 or a longshot 4. Bama is the team with the most to play for. I have them as my second to last team in after beating Georgia yesterday and a win today would secure their spot. But I have UK beating Florida in the final and Bama sweating out a long day tomorrow waiting.

ACC - Two top seeds and two teams on the bubble. UNC plays Va Tech, who I have safely in with their win over FSU yesterday. A win today certainly couldn't hurt. The team with more to play for is Clemson, who gets a shot at likely Nolan-Smith-less Duke. I have Clemson as my second team out so they need this one. I just don't see how we don't get Duke UNC III tomorrow. Cross your fingers. I'll take UNC with yesterday's wakeup win and the Nolan injury.

Pac 10 - Washington and Arizona, two of my favorite sleeper teams. Both very easily in and probably 2 of only 3 Pac schools now. Wazzu is on the wrong side of the bubble, and I have USC as a last three team in but can't see the committee doing it after the NCAA just suspended their coach. Washington won by 17 at home and lost by 1 in Arizona on a wicked blocked shot by Derrick Williams. I think the Huskies are the favorites. I have Arizona as about a 6 seed and Washington as a 9. I don't see that changing much.

MWC - Here we go, BYU and San Diego St one last time... and it doesn't even seem to be on tv. Fantastic. Jimmer scored 52 yesterday. He shot 22 for 37. That's actually even crazier because 22 field goals (including 7 threes) is 51 points, so that means only 1 free throw. That's just a shooting clinic. Player of the year it is, then. He's had some big games against SD St and they'll need him again. I have a 4 seed and 5 seed for these two squads, winner getting the 4. Plenty at stake and lots will be watching if they can find it. I think these teams could still end up 2 and 3 seeds nationally if people have really bought into this. I am drooling over the thought of knocking a 2 seed SDSt out in round two (please God, not in a bracket with #1 Duke. ugh). I do like San Diego St to get this one and get the very high seed.

Big East - Well we've reshuffled the entire Big East deck the last couple days, and player of the year candidate Kemba Walker has come through yet again. I have Pitt and ND at a dead heat at the top. I'll give the edge to ND because they won the regular season matchup at Pitt, so they could get the 1 seed (huge upset alert - get ready to pick someone else for the Final Four). Both deserve 1 seeds but one could get snubbed for Duke. Good chance Duke and one of them are together in one of the brackets. I still have Syracuse as a solid 2 seed, and Louisville is there now as well with 5 wins over the top 4 Big East teams (other than themselves). UConn and St Johns are borderline 3-4 seeds. UConn could secure a 3 with a win tonight but I have to think Louisville's tempo will end this one early. There are still 5 more Big East teams safely in after that but none that I trust much in.

Big 12 - This is the golden egg of the games today with a Kansas and Texas rematch in the final. KU could still be the 1 overall seed and should be a 1 seed either way. Texas could potentially steal a #1 if they sweep the Jayhawks, but they're a pretty 2 seed. Still this is going to have a tourney feel, and both of these teams are top 5-7 contenders to cut down the nets. I like Kansas to win this one, but I hope it's a great game. It should be.

Bubble watch - I have Colorado, Florida St, Michigan, Georgia, Penn St, Richmond, and Va Tech all safely in, though one of those last two gets a play-in game. That leaves 3 spots left for me (really 2 because I know the committee is taking George Mason against all logic. I still think I'd rather take Harvard). I think Alabama is relatively safe. My other two spots are currently USC and Nebraska, with Clemson and Ok St my last two out. Can I say again how unexcited I am to see some combination of Richmond, Alabama, Va Tech, and Clemson playing play-in games on Tuesday? Then again it's better than McNeese St vs Grambling St so I guess I shouldn't complain. But seriously, stop letting these crapfest teams in. The bubble would be perfect with those 3 fewer spots.

Can't wait to see that bracket!! Should still get a great SEC final tomorrow, a fun A10 matchup, and Lord willing, hopefully Duke UNC III. Yes please. =]

NCAA rankings - Mar 7 - by seed

This week my top 25 turned into a top 50, which was not fun. Teams 40-50 are pretty dreadful. I do not envy the committee's decision. Btw this was written before the last couple days of ball so I'm going to ignore the last couple days of results for this below. Anyway, here is my top 50 teams in order, but broken down by seed...

#1 seeds (overall #1-#4)
Pittsburgh, Ohio St, Notre Dame, Kansas
And I think the dropoff after these four is huge. Comparing Duke's profile to someone like Pitt or ND is a joke. Duke has four wins over sure tournament teams and their second best win (after UNC) is over Marquette. Both Pitt and ND beat Marquette too, but they each have NINE other more valuable wins. This shouldn't even be a discussion.

#2 seeds (overall #5-#8)
Syracuse, Wisconsin, Purdue, St. John's
I've really come full circle on all of these teams, who I started either down on or ignoring completely a couple months ago. The Cuse is a #1 seed disguised as a 3 or 4 right now due to an awful two week stretch, and these two Big Ten squads will be very tough outs and are very much Final Four threats.

#3 seeds (overall #9-#12)
Duke, Texas, UNC, BYU
And yet some or all four of these teams will end up seeded higher than this. I don't think we can give BYU a top 10 ranking anymore, not as things look right now. If they beat New Mexico and then SDSt or UNLV handily, I will give them a 2. I do think that Duke or UNC can have St. John's spot as a 2 seed if/when they win the ACC tourney. And Texas is a real wildcard, a team that was my #1 overall only a month ago but is fading quickly with now five very average looking losses.

#4 seeds (overall #13-#16)
Cincy, Louisville, Florida, UConn
I believe that 4-13 is the new 5-12 upset in this year's format, and these teams are all ripe for the picking if they were facing some of this year's top mid majors like Belmont or Oakland. Cincy continues to get no national love but their profile is pretty clearly better than Lville and UConn with a trio of solid road wins and all seven losses to worthy top 20 opponents. Florida might deserve better than this and could move up a line if they move as easily through the SEC tourney as they did through the regular season, but for now the early season losses are still an eyesore.

#5 seeds (overall #17-#20)
Kentucky, Georgetown, West Virginia, San Diego St
If BYU is not quite a top 10 team, then SDSt is barely in the top 20. I just don't think we know enough about this team to push them that much higher than other unknown quantities like Utah St or Belmont. Georgetown is fading fast without Chris Wright and could (should) drop some, and I still haven't figured out this UK team but I have a feeling Coach Cal will have his boys ready for an SEC tourney run.

#6 seeds (overall #21-#24)
Kansas St, Villanova, Vanderbilt, UCLA
Nova is another of those Big East teams that is really fading fast. I know these guard-driven teams perform well in tourneys, but there's a reason I wasn't shocked by (and in fact predicted) the USF loss yesterday. KSt is a team no one wants as a 6 or 7 seed in their bracket. They're playing right now like the 2 seed they were last year. And Vandy is always a 6 seed, aren't they?

#7 seeds (overall #25-#28)
Marquette, Arizona, Utah St, Michigan St
Ah yes, four teams that seem to be on the bubble for most but I have safely in and seeded pretty well. Marquette is my 11th Big East team and I don't think there's any question. No other bubble teams can say they've beaten West Va, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and UConn. Heck no one else in the Big East even beat both the Irish and the Orange. Cmon now. I still believe in this Sean Miller Zona team, and like I mentioned above, we don't know enough about this Utah St to know much what to do with them. I don't think Michigan St is a bubble team at all. They're a victim of a killer schedule, that's all. They have only one loss to a team entirely out of the tourney picture, two if you count at Penn St and I don't think you should, and there are four Ws over tourney teams. This is a team that played UConn, Duke, Cuse, and Texas in nonconference. Replace those with the usual nonconference patsies and the Buckeyes are 22-9 and no one thinks twice.

#8 seeds (overall #29-#32)
Belmont, Missouri, UNLV, Texas A&M
Two teams I love and two I hate. I can't wait to see where my Belmont Bruins end up seeded. If they get a 12 or 13 like I hope, they're a likely sweet sixteen squad for me. I think this was a tourney team with or without winning the A-Sun tourney, and I don't think it was close either. What's different than Utah St? They're better, for starters. I also think UNLV is a bit underrated and lost in the MWC shuffle. They could end up the only team vying for a sweet 16 spot. I am not a believer in these two Big 12 squads at all, both of whom have lost to no one special and beaten no one special. Woohoo.

#9 seeds (overall #33-#36)
Illinois, Temple, Tennessee, Georgia
Some similar teams in here. With Georgia and Temple, they just don't have a lot for or against the ol resume to know much about them. Nothing to dislike though, and Georgia is a non-bubble entity for me, very safely in the mix. Illinois will be safely in on the strength of beating a couple teams in Wisky and UNC whose wins look a lot better now than they should when the Illini beat them. And the Vols are one of those oh-no-this-9-seed-could-beat-the-1-seed-woops-they-lost-to-UNLV-first-somehow type teams that I love so very much.

#10 seeds (overall #37-#40)
Xavier, Gonzaga, Florida St, St. Mary's
Again all teams that are very safely in the fold for me. It's telling that FSU is clearly the 3rd ACC team and yet is only my #39 overall... telling in that I think we need to be careful with how we rate UNC and Duke. Then again Duke faced a bad conference last year and if I remember right, they did ok in the tourney. To me Gonzaga and St Mary's are both definite tournament teams. They look the part, they play the part, and St Mary's shouldn't miss from one rough 10 day stretch when they're a tourney team the other 4 months of the season. Xavier is in but will be overseeded.

#11 seeds (overall #41-#44)
Washington, Old Dominion, USC, Colorado
#42 is the cutoff for me, so Washington and ODU are safely in but the rest are bubble teams. Old Dominion is in and safe now anyway. Washington could be in some heat if they lose to Wazzu a third time though. They swept UCLA and beat Arizona but I couldn't tell you what else they've done worth a darn. Actually USC is a team people are finally starting to talk about that I think is on the right side of the bubble. They did as well as anyone in conference play and boast wins over Texas and Tennessee outside of it... but yeah those losses to Rider, Bradley, TCU, and Oregon St are tough to swallow. We've reached the top of the bubble for me, whereby I can overlook a bunch of rough losses if you also scored some big wins. Show me you can dance. Colorado beat Texas and swept K State. I hope you dance.

#12 seeds (overall #45-#50)
Alabama, Nebraska, Richmond, Va Tech, Oklahoma St, Michigan
Bama should be in the tourney on the basis of a strong SEC season including wins over UK, Tennessee, and Georgia... but they couldn't be too upset if they missed either. That this team should maybe get in over an 11th Big East team is pretty silly to me. Just take a look, the Tide lost to Seton Hall and Providence themselves. They would probably have been South Florida if in the Big East. Yikes. Nebraska doesn't even seem to be on folks' bubble radar, nor Okie St. Can't say I'm surprised. Neither has done anything away from home, but both have some solid wins there and only a couple rough losses. I do think Richmond ought to be in. Going 13-3 in the A10 and adding a win over Purdue should leave you pretty safe, hopefully not in one of those play-in games. I think VT is still in by virtue of being the clear #4 ACC team.. but barely. And Michigan quite frankly I hope doesn't make it. It's ironically their wins over two of my favs Oakland and Harvard that boost them to my last spot.

Note some teams who are missing from my list... George Mason and Butler in particular. I just see a bunch of losses to non-tourney teams and only one win over a sure tourney team between the two of them. Yeah Butler is safely in now on the auto-bid, but I don't think either of these teams is an at large profile even at all. Butler better not get like a 6 or 7 seed. I think both of these teams might.

This first four thing COULD be really cool. Let's say Harvard falls to Princeton. I have them as just barely on the wrong side of the bubble... but can you imagine a game of say Harvard vs USC for one 12 seed spot? Sign me up for that. Or how about George Mason and Alabama? I can get interested in that. But instead I know we're going to get some craptastic matchup like Colorado-Michigan that I wouldn't watch if it were the only game on the air. Who really cares which of those teams win? I sure don't.

Some championship week predictions

I have my top 25 for this week done from a day ago, pending when I get some time to post it. It's actually a top 50, aka a Bubble breakdown too, so hopefully soon. In the mean time, let's talk about some conference tournament predictions. Loves me some brackets. First, some winners in those future 15-16 seed conferences. Of the teams below, I love Oakland to make some noise and I could see the BSky winner doing something, otherwise nothin to see here...

Boston U (AMEC), Montana (BSky), Long Beach (BWest), Miami (MAC), Bethune (MEAC), Long Island (NEC), Bucknell (Patriot), Sam Houston (Southland), Oakland (Summit), N Texas (S Belt), Tex Southern (SWAC)

WAC - Utah St easily and then an overseed and another early out
Horizon - Butler, though I really want Milwaukee to win and then Butler to miss the tourney because I just dont see why they are an at large lock. Oakland has a better profile.
CUSA - UTEP over UAB. Single bid league this year, Memphis sucks now.
Ivy - Harvard. Princeton loses today @Penn. I'd really would love a sudden death game but I'll take Harvard any way I can get em.
A10 - Temple over Duquesne... Xavier still in safely, Richmond in but a play-in game

And the big ones...

M West - UNLV over New Mexico. Going off the board on this one. I think BYU drops to the NMex/ColSt winner and I really think UNLV is an underrated squad plus they get the home tourney. BYU drops to a questionable 4 seed, Col St falls off the bubble, and NMex makes a late push to grab a spot but comes up short.

Pac 10 - USC over UCLA. I really like USC a lot. Wish they were getting some more bubble love but even getting to the final probably wouldn't be enough. I like them to finish the job. I do think Washington beats Wazzu to solidify its bid, and I still like Arizona, just not in this tourney. Pac10 a little underrated. I'd actually like all 4 teams coming out in this scenario (Wazzu out).

Big 10 - Ohio St over Wisconsin, but in a much better game than Sunday. Let's just say the Buckeyes won't shoot 14 for 15 from the arc again. Still Ohio St is a near lock here for me. I think both Michigan and Michigan St lose early and leave themselves firmly on the bubble... and I think Izzo's boys still get in over Michigan despite being swept by the Wolverines. Panic everywhere, right up until Sparty wins yet another tourney game in an upset.

SEC - Kentucky over Georgia, Tennessee over Vandy, and UK wins in a great final. I have no idea though honestly. I could see Georgia making a run in Atlanta. I could see Tennessee making a big run or losing their first game. Vandy loses to Florida or Tennessee. I don't like Florida to win this, and I do think UK is underrated and Coach Cal loves winning conference tourneys.

ACC - UNC over Boston College, Duke over Florida St, Duke over UNC. I went into this thinking no way I'd set up the dream matchup of Duke-UNC III but I just don't see how it can be anything else because the ACC is so bad this year. I might pick FSU to beat UNC if they were on the other side of the bracket, but the Heels aren't losing to BC or Clemson and Duke just flat out isn't losing the ACC tournament. They pull away in the final and win with ease to lock up the last 1 seed.

Big 12 - KU over Colorado, Baylor over Mizzou, Kansas survives Baylor in the final. This is a conference I had no idea what to do with. So many talented but up and down teams. I like K St a lot, loved Texas a month ago, and hate both Mizzou and A&M. And I still don't know what I'll do with Kansas, who by all means should be a near Final Four lock but just never seems to do the job when it matters.

Big 12 - Ahh the big one. Let's get a real breakdown here...

Notre Dame gets the easiest semi final path with an easy one over Cincy, who beats USF after a surprise early Nova exit. Huggy Bear gets his boys up for another tourney run with a big win over Marquette and then a Louisville take down, but the Irish survive West Va and get to the final.

The other half of the bracket is much more loaded and intriguing to me. That St Johns and Syracuse matchup could be a real classic... but I fear with the pressure suddenly on St John's it may not happen, and I think they may have peaked about a month too early. I like the Orange. UConn has the most brutal path of anyone. Do we realize for them to win this, they'd have to beat DePaul, Gtown, Pitt, Cuse/StJn, and then ND/Lville on five consecutive days? Yeah, good luck with that....... except I think they get real close. I like UConn to barely get by DePaul before stomping Gtown and then outlasting Pitt in a thriller. But I like Syracuse in this half of the bracket and overall. I'll take Syracuse over Notre Dame in a final that boosts Cuse to a 2 seed and Notre Dame to a 1 taking Pittsburgh's spot.

We do realize that just on Thursday, we could see the following Big East games: Pitt-UConn at noon followed by St Johns-Cuse, then a nightcap of Notre Dame-Cincy and Louisville-West Va. We realize that, right? Holy cow. Let's get the party started.

Brandon Davies

As a former student of a conservative school with a strict behavioral code, I know what it's like to have to live by super strict rules. The reason I am going to have to side with the school's decision to kick him off the team is this: he KNEW the rules when he enrolled in the school. If you can't play by the rules, you probably should choose another school. I have to give a major Bravo to BYU for kicking off an important player in their run for a Final Four appearance. That couldn't have been easy to do, but they did it, and sticking by the decision. With the amount of money that's potentially at stake with a deep tournament run, they are sticking to their guns. Can't fault them for that, and I have to say, the people attacking BYU are morons. Say what you want, the rules were CLEARLY stated when Davies enrolled. Blame the kid who made a mistake, blame the kid who broke the rules. He knew the potential consequences of his actions, and he did it anyways. He is the only one at fault, and any backlash anywhere else is midguided and wrong.

On a side note: whoever found out about this and told authorities, they are probably trying to keep their identity secret, because they are probably going to get beat up big time. Seriously, your team is #3 in the nation, and an important player just got kicked off the team cuz you tattled on him. I wouldn't want to be that person...just sayin...

NCAA rankings - Feb 28

Only one week left in the regular season... some conference tournaments starting already tomorrow... and the tournament selection show is already all set up in my DVR. March is here!!!

1. Pittsburgh (1) - I remain unwavering in my commitment to Pitt, and an overtime loss in Lville isn't going to change that too much, if anything help it.
2. Ohio St (2) - Still two very valid losses, but other than the win against Purdue and at Florida, there still isn't a whole lot else there. Chance to beat Wisconsin this week and nail down a 1 seed even if they lose in the B10 tourney.
3. Kansas (3) - Like OSU, not a ton on the resume still but just continuing to roll in a strong conference.
4. BYU (5) - This is looking like a pretty strong top 4 right now to me, and it's looking more and more realistic that BYU could be a likely 1 seed out West where you have to think they'd be hard to beat. Every bit of a 1 seed that Memphis was a few years ago.
5. Notre Dame (9) - Never too excited to rank the Irish this high. No bad losses but only one even sort of good road win (though the best - at Pitt) makes me pretty leery of this team.

6. Syracuse (15) - I've come full circle on this squad apparently. What I really like is the fact that home-away doesnt seem to matter a whole lot. You dont want to lose at home, but I get excited about four road victories at St Johns, UConn, Nova, and Gtown for sure.
7. Purdue (13) - Another team I've really come around on. Purdue is winning and winning big. Only one questionable loss and a lot of good really solid wins, though not much on the road.
8. St. John's (10) - There are 8 losses including those two awful ones early on. But there are also an astonishing 9 wins against teams solidly in my top 22, including three on the road which is the usual knock on this team. No one wants to play them right now, and the bad early losses could keep the seed down and sleeper status alive. Unless of course they use that great home court advantage and win the Big East tourney...
9. Duke (7) - Come to think of it, the resume isn't much different from my #2 or #3 team, they just don't pass the eye test as well. They're not winning big and they haven't beat a top 20 team yet. Show me what you can do at UNC Saturday and you'll have my respect. Very shoddy 1 seed candidacy unless they beat UNC two more times and look convincing.
10. Texas (5) - I smelled the dropoff coming. You can smell the Rick Barnes stinkbomb coming a mile away. Still the best road win in the country but you really have to worry about a team that talented losing to three very mediocre teams like USC, Nebraska, and Colorado.

11. Wisconsin (14) - They were ridiculous for a half against Ohio St. Let's see if they can take the show on the road this week.
12. Lousiville (17) - Really this team isn't a whole lot different from Notre Dame, until you factor in the losses to Providence and Drexel. I'm starting to see the talent there but I still worry when a team is THAT much better at home.
13. UConn (12) - Big win in Cincy especially without Kemba starring, but I still don't see a lot else there.
14. San Diego St (6) - I'm really not on board with this squad as a star contender. They should be something like a 4 or 5 seed I think. But they still have a chance to add a 3rd victory over UNLV basically on the road plus finally a win against BYU.
15. Georgetown (11) - The injury to Chris Wright is an absolute killer. The news about his injury and how long it may take mean everything to the Hoyas.

16. Cincinnati (19) - Still not sure how the Bearcats are a bubble team. They've only lost to top 20 teams, and they have three wins over top 20 squads too. Great chance to sweep Gtown this week.
17. West Virginia (20) - Still not in love with the questionable early losses to teams like Miami and Marshall, but there are five really good wins against top 25 teams as well including a pair of Notre Dame and Purdue.
18. Villanova (16) - Another Big East team that has a lot of big home wins, but a lot of home losses too. Underwhelming resume but always a good tourney team with all those guards.
19. UCLA (25) - The Bruins get my top Pac 10 spot this week after just destroying Arizona. They add that to wins over BYU and St. John's... but also confusing losses to VCU, USC, Cal, and inexplicably to Montana. Does the Pac 10 just totally suck this year?

20. Florida (18)
21. Kentucky (23) - Still not sure what to do with the SEC either. Obviously.
22. Marquette (21) - Still losing a bunch of good losable games, and they finally finished off that marquee victory at UConn this week and make it look like a real 11 Big East teams in the tourney this year.
23. Arizona (8) - Wow. What an absolutely awfully terribly disappointing week. I was ready to pick this team as a sleeper Final Four squad too. Yikes.
24. Vanderbilt (24) - Blah.
25. UNC (22) - I like this team a lot more than 25th best, but the resume doesn't show it yet. Definite Final Four potential there if they play up to it. Let's see them do it against Duke this week first.

Weird, no one dropped out of my top 25 this week. Very odd. I think Kansas St was my closest addition, which is also very odd. Big games this week...

M - KSt @ 10 Tex, 18 Nova @ 5 ND
T - 24 Van @ 21 UK
W - 12 UConn @ 17 WVa, 25 UNC @ FSU, 16 Cin @ 22 Marq
R - 19 UCLA @ Wash
S - 9 Duke @ 25 UNC, 2 KU @ Mizz, 10 Tex @ Bay, 19 Nova @ 1 Pitt, 5 ND @ 12 UConn, 15 Gtown @ 16 Cin, 20 Fla @ 24 Van, 11 Lville @ 17 WVa
S - 11 Wisc @ 3 OhSt, 21 UK @ Tenn

We also have our first bids ready to go out this week. I like Coastal Carolina in a big way out of the Big South. I think it will come down to an exciting one game playoff between Harvard and Princeton in the Ivy. And I'm excited for the Horizon tourney. I'll go with Butler over Milwaukee in the final.

NCAA rankings - Feb 21

Wow, quite an awful week for the teams in my top 10. SEVEN of them took a loss this week, though none of them were utterly shocking or terrible losses and several of them were to each other. What happened is that there was so much attrition at the top but still such a big gap to the next tier that no one really moved up or down all that much. Let's get to it...

1. Pittsburgh (1) - Of all the teams that took a loss, Pitt's loss was the best - by 1 questionable point at St Johns, a top ten team. Realistically, that's a coin toss game anyway. This team still remains staunchly my #1 squad.
2. Ohio St (3) - Funny that the Buckeyes lose a second straight Sunday and raise to the highest spot I've given them all year. Definitely a bit concerned that they haven't got that one huge win.
3. Kansas (3) - That early neutral win over Arizona is starting to look pretty sweet, but they still need to do SOMEthing in conference. Ain't gonna happen this week.
4. Texas (2) - The loss at Nebraska was the worst of the week for top 10 squads.
5. BYU (5) - Starting to believe a 1 seed is a legit possibility. They'll need to beat San Diego St twice more though, and I don't see that happening.

6. San Diego St (8) - This Saturday. 1pm. BYU. Let's do this.
7. Duke (10) - Teams 6-8 are squads with 0 or 1 bad losses but who we still don't know enough about. So why is SDSt a 2 seed, Duke a 1, and the following team not even being mentioned?
8. Arizona (14) - Derrick Williams is a super duper mega stud. Timberwolves please? Excited for the game at UCLA this weekend.
9. Notre Dame (5) - Tough break for the Irish. No shame in a loss at West Va, but they weren't even close and look a lot like one of those teams that's sick at home and incredibly anywhere else. Which by the way, reminds me of...
10. St John's (11) - As bad a week as most teams had, the Johnnies went out and won at Marquette and then beat my #1 Pitt. An unreal 12 of their last 13 games have come against teams in my top 25, and in the last three weeks they've beaten #7 Duke, #12 UConn, #19 Cincy, #21 Marquette, and #1 Pitt. I got me some scarlet fever.

11. Georgetown (7) - Big week ahead for the Hoyas, who have a chance to add home victories over Cincy and Cuse and lock up a first round bye in the Big East tourney.
12. UConn (9) - Still slipping and no easy breath of air any time soon. Kemba has to be wearing down. This team peaked too early.
13. Purdue (25) - No team had a bigger week than the Boilers who just took care of business at home against Wisky and Ohio St and finally earned my respect. Robbie Hummel or not.
14. Wisconsin (12) - I basically could not separate the resumes of Purdue and Wisconsin. Almost completely identical.

15. Syracuse (16)
16. Villanova (13)
17. Louisville (15) - Yes we have reached the portion of good but not great Big East squads that I don't entirely believe in but are too hard to ignore.
18. Florida (17) - No question this has been the best in the SEC but we'll see just how good they can be with back to back road weekends in UK and Vandy.
19. Cincinnati (NR) - I hope the Bearcats have enjoyed their complimentary stay in my top 25. Up next? Georgetown, UConn, Marquette, and Georgetown again. Far from a March lock here.
20. West Va (23) - Suddenly we are looking at a quintet of wins over Vandy, Gtown, Purdue, Cincy, and Notre Dame that look pretty darn good. Brawl @Pitt Thursday is a game with nothing to lose and everything to win.

21. Marquette (18) - No team in the nation has a better resume of losses than the Eagles. They still don't have a bad loss. The only thing even close is a neutral game against Gonzaga. But at what point is 16-11 and only .500 in conference not enough? They could really use a win at UConn on Thursday night.
22. UNC (24) - Still hanging tough and I definitely have my eye on this team.
23. Kentucky (19) - Continuing a slow slide into oblivion...
24. Vanderbilt (21) - Insert useful comment here.
25. UCLA (20) - Tough loss at Cal but still a solid #2 in the Pac 10 and that win over BYU is still on the resume.

Feeling lonely - St. Mary's (22), the only team to fall from the rankings this week and boy did they ever

Upcoming games this week, my picks in bold...
M - 15 Syr @ 16 Nova
W - 19 Cin @ 11 Gtown, Tem @ 7 Duke
R - 21 Marq @ 12 UConn, 20 WVa @ 1 Pitt, Gonz @ StMary
S - 5 BYU @ 6 SDSt, 15 Syr @ 11 Gtown, 8 Ari @ 25 UCLA, 10 StJn @ 16 Nova, 18 Fla @ 23 UK, 7 Duke @ VT
S - 1 Pitt @ 17 Lville, 12 UConn @ 19 Cin, 13 Pur @ MiSt

Thank God for Brandon...

or else this blog would probably be dead! With work and a child, I find it hard to update this, especially with no cable so I basically no nothing about sports anymore. Not true, but it feels that way sometimes. Anyways, I want to talk about the possibility of a lockout. Really, I don't see them not having a 2011 season. I think Goodell isn't that dumb, and the players won't want to make $0. I think it comes down to that. Goodell knows that the NFL will lose lots of money with no season, and I think that motivates him to get a deal done. The thing that only makes me 50% positive on that though, is that he knows he won't lose many (if any) fans if there isn't a season. That worries me, because I really don't want a lack of football next fall. What will I do with Sundays? Sofi won't be able to wear her really cute 9 month old Seahawks outfits!

I think the owners are being way too greedy on this CBA, and since they can afford to do it they won't budge. They will still get TV money, and people will still buy their team's merchandise because America loves the NFL.

I don't want an 18 game season, that seems way too long, and I want a shorter preseason. I think we all can agree the preaseason is lame and should be shorter, but 16 games is a lot on the players, and with how many injuries happened in the Super Bowl, it's possible that a Super Bowl winning team could have as many injured players as healthy players. The NFL players career is short enough as it is, now with the added games an 8 year career is as long as a current 9 year career. They lose a season before they turn 30! Ridiculous, especially with them cracking down on concussions...I don't know...just seems so hypocritical.

Sorry for the disorganized view on the CBA...but it's bothering me so I had to write about it...

By the way, did you hear Albert Pujols didn't sign an extension before his deadline, won't work on it during the season, and will be a free agent in 10 months?!? ;-)

NCAA rankings - Feb 13

So I'm pretty upset that I didn't get to post my rant about Kansas being overrated and a ludicrous #1 team and ready for a dropoff before they got demolished yesterday. Even if I know no one reads this anyway. Let me just get to the rankings...

1. Pittsburgh (1) - Very impressive week for Pitt, maybe as impressive a week as anyone's had this year, and yet *even with the national #1 team losing* they STILL didn't get any love or move up. I'm not sure how. They're clearly the best team in clearly the best conference, and they just won 2 tough road games against tourney teams while missing their leading scorer. Smh.
2. Texas (2) - Starting to have some doubts due to a weak-ish resume. The only real big win right now is at Kansas, who also seems (especially now) to be very overrated. Still they're cruising in a BCS conference, even if it's hard to tell how strong it is.
3. Ohio St (3) - No reason to drop them after a good road loss, even one where they were up 15 in a place where no one wins.
4. Kansas (4) - Pretend like this was written 2 days ago. I'm dying to drop KU in the rankings and they're due for a fall. Just not an impressive resume - thank goodness for those early wins over Arizona and UCLA.
5. Notre Dame (6) - Can't believe the Irish are a top 5 team now, and I'd still love to see another road win than just Pitt, but if you're going to only have one, wouldn't you want it against the #1 team in the land?

6. BYU (7) - JIMMER.
7. Georgetown (8) - Lots of very quality wins, I count 10 over likely tourney teams including 5 on the road including Nova and Cuse... but starting to worry that many of the wins look less exciting in hindsight. Still haven't beat one of the top 4 Big East squads.
8. San Diego St (9) - Really thought they'd go down at UNLV. Are they really going to be a 2 seed? Easiest 2nd round upset pick ever.
9. UConn (5) - This team is weakening quickly. The only real road win was the crazy lucky one at Texas that is now keeping this team up for a high seed instead of slipping into the midst of the Big East. Still Kemba is slowing down, and there just isn't anything else in the cupboard. This is a huge week, with two very tough games in a span of two days. This team could plummet if they're not careful.
10. Duke (10) - Big comeback to secure the win against UNC, but I'm not sure they're necessarily the better team even. That's the first win over a sure tourney team, and even that was not exactly impressive.

11. St. John's (NR) - I clearly have no idea what to do with this team, but how can you argue against four wins against top 10 teams? Well... maybe by reminding folks of early season back to back losses against St. Bonaventure and Fordham. This is a big week, with a trip to Marquette and a home game vs Pitt. Even getting one of those would really fill out this resume.
12. Wisconsin (21) - Ok Badgers. I'll respect that big win, but I still want to see something on the road. How about at Purdue this week?
13. Villanova (11) - A good but not great team, always up for a potential upset with all those guards.
14. Arizona (15) - Hard to figure this team out, but the game against Washington this week should tell us quite a bit. I'm really loving this team and it's 3 point shooters.
15. Louisville (16) - Another one of those good not great Big East teams, but they sure are tough to beat at home.

16. Syracuse (12) - A very hit or miss squad. Just not a believer yet.
17. Florida (13) - This Parsons injury could really hurt a team that is rolling right now, and they still have a lot of rough losses on the resume despite the SEC dominance.
18. Marquette (18) - Amazing that this team has 10 losses already... but the only one that is sort of even questionable is the loss to Gonzaga, a team that many people had in their preseason Final Four. But they also don't have many wins, especially on the road.
19. Kentucky (14) - Somehow they keep losing the close ones, but I think this team is becoming underrated pretty quickly. Coach Cal will have his boys ready, and I'd still make them the favorite to win the SEC tourney.
20. UCLA (19) - Ok so there's not much in the Pac 10, but they're winning the ones they should, and those victories over BYU and St. John's are looking pretty good too.

21. Vanderbilt (25) - They keep on winning the games they should, and they're starting to tally a lot of wins over quality teams. Your usual Vandy squad.
22. St. Mary's (NR) - Finally time to share some love, but I've loved this team all year. Hard to know a ton about them, and I am looking forward to the trip to Gonzaga to see how they do on the road.
23. West Va (NR) - They get a spot for the week. But with Cuse and ND looming, we'll see if they stick around or just keep piling up respectable losses.
24. UNC (21) - Hard to really fault them for that loss at Duke. This team is really coming together and could be a quick out or a Final Four run - they have by far the most upside of anyone in the ACC for sure.
25. Purdue (NR) - I have NO idea how this team is ranked near the top 10 nationally. They don't have any bad losses, but they also may not even have a win over a sure tourney team. They'll sure get their chances this week without even leaving Indiana. Visits from Wisconsin and Ohio St make Purdue our team of the week.

TTYL - Tennessee (17), A&M (22), Temple (23), Cincy (24)

Big games this week and my winner in bold:
M - 23 West Va @ 16 Cuse
T - 11 St Johns @ 18 Marq
W - 7 Gtown @ 9 UConn... 12 Wisc @ 25 Purdue... 15 Lville @ Cincy
F - 9 UConn @ 15 Lville
S - 1 Pitt @ 11 St Johns... 5 NDame @ 23 West Va... Wash @ 14 Zona... Utah St @ 22 St Marys
S - 3 Ohio St @ 25 Purdue

Big college Saturday!

The times they are a changing... I went to before midnight on a Friday night to wake up early to watch this Man City v Man United soccer match that will essentially define the season for my beloved City. I can't help but feel we have the inferior squad here, by far it seems at least on the creatively offensive side, but I remain optimistic even on the road. David Silva already missed a golden opportunity in the early minutes that would've been huge.

In the meantime, today is a pretty monster day in college hoops so I thought it was time to settle in for a few predictions...

A few big bubble games today between teams barely hanging on almost look like knockout games... I like Nebraska and Colorado to win at home against Okie St and K St, but BC falls at home to Maryland. An important Colonial game as well between Old Dominion and VCU. Both these teams look tourney worthy but really need this one. I like Eric Maynor's boys at home.

A few teams should be on upset watch today... Temple needs to be very careful at Dayton but should be able to survive and deal a knockout blow to Dayton's bubble chances. And UNC's kids need to be very wary of the emotional letdown that seems likely to follow a missed chance at Duke. They face a hungry Clemson squad and I think the Tigers pull the upset. I definitely like San Diego St to pick up the loss at UNLV today, where the Rebels barely lose, but I genuinely don't think that is an upset. SDSt still has only one win against a tourney team and is overrated, and I think UNLV should always be a Vegas favorite at home. My big upset watch of the day falls on Texas, who faces a road Baylor team with absolutely nothing to lose. The Bears are just as talented and have not put everything together in a game yet this season. They could well lose by 30, I just have a feeling they could really put a scare in Texas or shock the world.

I've got 5 matchups today between teams in my top 25. Let's take a look...

17 Tennessee @ 13 Florida
The Gators are playing very well, but all of their biggest wins have been tight ones or overtime, including the overtime win at Tennessee the first time around. The Vols just don't have much room to mess around anymore. They still face Vandy and UK too, with 9 losses already. This is Bruce Pearl's second game back. I think the desperate Vols team eke out a road victory. If they don't, I may be done putting my faith in this squad for good.

12 Syracuse @ 16 Louisville
A matchup of Big East teams I really don't believe in, both of whom are hanging surprisingly weak overall resumes' hats on a win over recently-reeling UConn. I can tell I really don't like either of these squads much because I really want to pick each one to lose. Cuse has not been good on the road, but Louisville has been far from dominant at home over average competition. The one thing I believe in this game is the Syracuse 2-3 defense and I'm not sure the Cards have the shooting to beat them. I'll pick the Orange on the road.

14 Kentucky @ 25 Vanderbilt
This is not your UK team of yesteryear. They've lost 5 times on the road already, albeit close ones to good opponents mostly. Vandy meanwhile is the same team they always are. They win the games they should, beat pretty much everyone at home, and don't really have any big wins. Vandy has 6 losses as well, and 5 of them have been hard fought losses either by a final shot or in overtime. Take away the school names, and I think the home team would be a solid 7-10 point favorite. That's how I think this one turns out as well.

1 Pitt @ 11 Villanova
Pittsburgh is without leading scorer Ashton Gibbs, and they may have survived at West Va earlier this week but Nova is a different animal. Villanova is really not the team you'd want to be facing when you're missing your best guard. Hard to say how the Cats will respond coming off that absolutely brutal loss at Rutgers the other night. How do you lose to Rutgers? How do you lose after being up 13 with four and a half minutes left? How do you lose in regulation when you're up 3 with six seconds left? You give up a FOUR POINT PLAY in the final second, that's how. So painful. I like Nova to gut out a hard fought home victory in this one to get back on the rebound.

3 Ohio St @ 21 Wisconsin
Fun fact... Wisconsin has only lost 12 times at the Kohl Center under Bo Ryan, and one of those losses is to North Dakota St. Second fun fact... Wisconsin is really really really hard to beat at home. They've already played all the other tourney teams at home and their closest W this season was a comfy 7 points. Four of Ohio St's five road wins in the Big 10 have come by five or less points. I'm starting to come around to them just racking up win after win, but I really think the Badgers are underrated with their obscenely boring style of play - no turnovers, crazy efficiency, sloooow pace. That's why one of my cardinal rules each March is to just pencil Wisky right into my sweet 16. Just too tough of a matchup for most squads. I genuinely think Wisconsin should be favored in this matchup. I really like them to win at home, possibly even by double digit points.

I just realized that if all of this plays out, my #1, #2, and #3 teams would all go down on one day (assuming longshot Baylor comes through). That would certainly make my rankings interesting. Should be a great day of basketball. And maybe a big day of soccer too! GOOOOOOOAL for City and we are tied up at 1! Lucky as anything, don't even care. Time to buckle down and watch this game that I had almost given up on. Let's go City!!!

NCAA rankings - Feb 6

Yeah, yeah, Super Bowl. I picked the Steelers before the season. I'm sticking with them. Pitt by 5. Not nearly as much turmoil at the top of the rankings this week, but a lot more happening among the masses and bubble goodness everywhere. Let's get to it.

1. Pitt (2) - I'm not actually sure how I ranked Texas over Pitt last week. Pitt has one less loss, one more big win, and hey - they actually beat the Longhorns earlier this year.
2. Texas (1) - Hard to argue with the results. This team should be a double digit favorite until the Sweet 16 unless they meet KU in the Big XII finals.
3. Ohio St (4) - Still not a lot of big wins but looking impressive all the way. This weekend in Wisconsin is their biggest chance for a big road win - or a first loss.
4. Kansas (5) - Those early season wins over Arizona and UCLA are starting to look pretty solid. Unfortunately they probably don't have a win over a tourney time since. That should change tomorrow when Mizzou visits, assuming the Tigers right the ship after this rough stretch.
5. UConn (3) - Yeah so they lost at home this week, but to a desperate Cuse team that was top 3 in the nation only two weeks ago. Not exactly a bad loss. But the team is starting to fall off a bit and needed a huge comeback to escape a 3 game losing streak. Danger zone?

6. Notre Dame (6) - The schedule really opens up over the next 6 before the Irish close against Nova and UConn in games that could propel them to a surprise Big East title.
7. BYU (9) - They still have one more loss than SD St but they also have a pretty impressive slate of wins. In addition to SD St, they have now swept UNLV and also have wins over Arizona, St Mary's, and Utah St that each look better and better by the day.
8. Georgetown (7) - The schedule is about to get real. It's road trips to Cuse and UConn with a tough home game against WVa sandwiched in between. Could be rough.
9. San Diego St (8) - A whole lot of wins, 23 to be exact, but I'm beginning to feel a bit underwhelmed by the schedule. They got St Mary's too, but Gonzaga and Wichita are clear downgrades from Zona and Utah St, and they haven't beat UNLV yet either. They'll get their chance this Saturday in Vegas. But I bet they'll move down my rankings before they move up.
10. Duke (12) - This Wednesday is the first UNC-Duke game of the year. As far as I'm concerned, that marks the beginning of the real NCAA season every year. Giddyup.

11. Villanova (11) - The game of the week might be this Saturday when Pitt comes to town. Nova doesnt have any tough roadies until the final two games of the season. If they can get this home win and the one over Cuse in a week, they'll be back to the top 5 soon enough.
12. Syracuse (17) - A win at UConn can go a long way toward righting a losing ship. But they get Georgetown this week and then a trip to Louisville, so never a day to rest in the Big East.
13. Florida (NR) - Hard to overlook those nasty early losses to UCF and Jacksonville that just won't go away, but the good wins are really piling up. That's 6 or 7 wins now against likely tourney teams, easily the most of anyone in the SEC.
14. Kentucky (10) - Two road losses in a week, even both in the final seconds, leaves the Cats at 4-4 and well behind Florida in the SEC race and actually tied for last in the SEC East. Doesn't get any easier this week either with a visit from a desperate Vols team and then an always tough trip to Vandy.
15. Arizona (19) - Almost the best Cats in the nation suddenly. Still hard to know much about this team since they haven't really had a big win yet, but the four losses are all quite excusable.

16. Louisville (20) - Nice to lose a game and jump 4 spots, but the crap is about to hit the fan. At Notre Dame, home Cuse, at Cincy, home UConn should tell us plenty. I'm still not really sold on these Cards, but it'd be hard to ignore some of those Ws should they come.
17. Tennessee (14) - Losses like the OT one yesterday against Bama are losses Tennessee just can't afford. 7 of the final 8 games are against tourney or bubble teams, starting with road trips to UK and Florida this week. Time to find out if my faith will be rewarded.
18. Marquette (15) - Life in the Big East is never easy, but there are a lot of winnable games left on the schedule against bottom tier teams. Can they get that one big road win over Georgetown this week or UConn in two weeks to put them over the top? If not, beating all the bad Big East teams just might not matter.
19. UCLA (NR) - Why hello Ben Howland. Not so much on the road yet, but being the only team to beat BYU is looking better and better, and an easy win over the same St Johns that beat Duke a week ago looks good too.
20. UNC (NR) - Interesting that these two schools pop back in together. We may have given Roy Williams up for dead a bit too soon. These kids are really playing some ball and look like a definite tourney team, but let's see how far they've come against Duke this week.

21. Wisconsin (NR) - My honorary 2nd best Big 10 team for the week. I'll let them earn their stay with the home game against the Buckeyes this weekend.
22. Texas A&M (13) - I really thought the Aggies would beat Texas this week. Instead they lost ugly, then lost again, and now have lost 4 or 5. Better get some wins soon.
23. Temple (24) - Not any big conference wins yet and might not get their chance - they lost to Xavier and Duquesne and won't see them again til a conference tourney.
24. Cincinnati (25) - Still a blank canvas waiting to be written. Two more blah games before 5 of their last 6 are against top 25 squads.
25. Vanderbilt (NR) - Haven't we seen this team before? Yup, every year. They win the big home games and lose the road wins. Just winning at home this week will do the trick though, against Bama and Kentucky.

Peace out - Washington (16), Missouri (18), Purdue (21), St Johns (22), West Va (23)

NCAA rankings 1-31

It was a bloodbath in the top 25 this week. Five of my top six teams took a loss, and the Big East was a mess this week. But note a few big wins by teams I called underrated last week, and a couple losses from teams I questioned as overrated too. Let's get to the rankings including a new #1...

1. Texas (3) - Starting to get noticed nationally after 3 of their last 4 games were big wins over top 25 squads, but one big road test remains this Wednesday at A&M, who they beat by 21 two weeks ago. Win that one and they might not lose again til tourney time.
2. Pitt (1) - My top team from a week ago took a surprising home loss to the Irish but there was enough of a mess at the top to not fall too far. Might be in it for the long haul with wins over UConn, Cuse, and Gtown and no return trips coming.
3. UConn (2) - Like Pitt, took a surprising home loss to Louisville this week. Like Pitt, too much turmoil to fall too far.
4. Ohio St (9) - Still a rather uninspiring slate of wins, but the only team left without a loss and looking pretty dominant in wins, no matter who they're facing.
5. Kansas (7) - Moved them up on the basis of the Big 12 ranking, even if they don't have a win over a sure tournament yet. But the only loss is to Texas and they only have 2 losable games left on the schedule. Looks like a #1 seed, like it or not.

6. Notre Dame (11) - I noted last week that the Irish were piling up an impressive slate of wins but needed that big road win to put a stamp on the season. How does @Pitt sound? Add that to UConn, Gtown, Marq, Wisc, and more.
7. Georgetown (17) - They've rebounded nicely after a rough Big East start and now added a big win at Villanova. This team is one to watch in March - they've got some really nice road wins, nice enough to offset 5 losses, all to top 25 teams.
8. San Diego St (8) - Yeah, they lost. But on the road to BYU in a tight game - that's a good loss. That's probably a better loss than an undefeated season, character building.
9. BYU (9) - The win over SDSt was more than offset by an awful follow up loss at New Mexico that should cool down the national Jimmer love for awhile.
10. Kentucky (12) - So young and inconsistent, and these next two weeks will be telling with road trips to Miss, Fla, and Vandy. Still need to put things together for 40 minutes.

11. Villanova (4) - That win at Syracuse seems long ago and pretty watered down at this point, and the loss at Providence this week puts a real damper on the season. Good chance for a rebound week with home games against Marq and WVa.
12. Duke (6) - That was not pretty yesterday. And neither is this overall resume. Duke does not even have a victory yet over a surefire tournament team, and they're not looking fantastic in wins either. Even worse, the best road win is at NC St. Up next at Maryland this week, where they always have trouble.
13. Texas A&M (13) - This is a team that is great at home, has done nothing on the road, and in need of a marquee win for the resume. Enter new #1 Texas.
14. Tennessee (16) - Easy week here but gearing up for make or break games at Kentucky and Florida next week. Season saver or ruiner.
15. Marquette (NR) - I told you it would be a big week. This team is underrated nationally still even after the Syracuse win, but they're going to have to prove it - on the road. They travel to Nova and Gtown in the next two weeks, with at UConn on tap too. Every other game is an easy one but they're going to have to win those and get another one or two of those big road games to go dancing.

16. Washington (15)
17. Syracuse (5) - Quite a tumble, but I'm no longer a believer until proven otherwise. They need to right the ship in a hurry - at UConn on Wednesday. Yikes.
18. Missouri (18)
19. Arizona (NR) - Very close to becoming the team to beat in the Pac 10, but hard to know if that means very much this year. Still, only one even sort of bad loss plus three that most teams would've lost (@BYU, @Wash, vs KU). Only problem is they haven't beaten anyone yet and won't get a chance to in this conference.
20. Louisville (NR) - Time to show a little respect after a wins over WVa and at UConn and the second best Big East record, but I'm not convinced. The three best wins are by just 1 point. Due for a letdown.

21. Purdue (22)
22. St. John's (NR) - Ok, crushing Duke win. Just another huge win for the Big East. Don't look now but Steve Lavin's team now has wins over Duke, ND, and Gtown, but still no margin for error.
23. West Va (21)
24. Temple (NR) - My top team in the A10, though they haven't notched any big conference wins yet. The one over Gtown should hold up pretty well.
25. Cincy (19) - Yup... that's 11 Big East teams in my top 25.

Don't let the door hit you on your way out - Mich St (14), Florida (20), Wisc (23), Fla St (24), Vandy (25)

Big games this week...
M - 1 Texas @ 13 A&M, 20 Louisville @ 7 Georgetown
T - Vandy @ Florida, Purdue @ Wisconsin
W - 17 Cuse @ 3 UConn, 15 Marquette @ 11 Nova, 12 Duke @ Maryland
S - 25 Cincy @ 2 Pitt, 23 West Va @ 11 Nova, 10 UK @ Florida

College hoops: Conference rankings & mid-majors

Let's go through the major conferences and share my opinion on them as a whole, then point out a few teams that I like as potential March Cinderellas. Off we go...

Atlantic 10 - Very solid overall. Temple and Xavier are a great 1-2 punch, and Richmond has a couple rough losses but a good profile too. Between those three they've got wins over Georgetown, Purdue, and Butler. Here's guessing at least one sweet 16 team rises again.

ACC - I am astonished at how poor the ACC grades out overall. Collectively as an entire conference, the best road win by *any* ACC team is probably either Maryland @ Penn St or Clemson @ College of Charleston. Go ahead and read that again. Duke has a solid slate and FSU holds up nicely, but these teams have done very little after that. They were dominated in the Big 10 Challenge by a conference I already think is overrated. So... yikes. I'm really not sure who is going dancing past Duke. Probably FSU and UNC but anyone else? I repeat... yikes.

Big 12 - Very impressive overall. There are no real monster wins and the only noteworthy road win is Texas @ Mich St. Still the top 5 teams (clearly Texas, KU, A&M, Mizzou, K St) all have 2-3 good solid nonconference wins and not really any terrible or egregious losses. Looking like one of the stronger conferences overall and potentially two #1 seeds. It's also a deeper conference than usual where even teams like Colorado and Nebraska can beat anyone any given night.

Big East - The SEC of college hoops. I count as many as 11 possible March squads, and a couple of the teams that could miss (Marquette, St Johns) would probably be top 3-4 squads in the ACC. Big East has the only two wins over Texas, including one on the road, and a road win in Mizzou too. Add in a couple wins over Mich St, UK, Wisc, and then just the cannibalization of each other and the Big East will reign again. Easy #1 conference. Probably the #2 conference too.

Big 10 - Upon second glance, not as bad as I first thought. There aren't any great standout wins... the best is probably Mich St over Washington. But there are road wins in Florida, Florida St, Marquette, and Gonzaga, and they dominated the ACC this year. Still, you get a few teams at the bottom who just lose to everyone, and in the rest of the games, it's always home team wins. It's hard to gather much info from that. Can Ohio State really be a #1 seed if they finish the year without a win against a top 15 squad?

Mountain West - Strong and top heavy, but overrated still. There's no reason San Diego St should be #4 in the nation right now, undefeated or not. Still SD St and BYU have some very strong profiles against all of the other top mid majors. They have the only two wins over Utah St and 2 of the only 3 wins over St Marys, plus Gonzaga, Wichita, and Arizona. For mid majors, very nice. But still mid majors. The projections of a #2 seed are not happening. On Selection Sunday these teams will be 5 and 6 seeds, probably facing other mid major sleepers, and everyone will be outraged. Yet again.

Pac 10 - Somehow it's USC that has the biggest nonconference wins - both of them - over Texas and at Tennessee, while also piling up gross losses to Rider, Bradley, TCU, and Oregon St that will doom them on Selection Sunday. UCLA does have the only victory over BYU so far, and Wazzu took down Gonzaga and Baylor, but there's not a whole lot going on. It's going to be hard for these teams to build March profiles when all that's left is beating up on each other and a bunch of top-50-but-not-much-better squads.

SEC - The SEC is really quite underrated. Tennessee has the best pair of wins in the nation with Pitt and Nova victories. Kentucky has a noble trio of N Dame, Washington, and @ Louisville. Add in Florida and Vandy's victories over St Marys, K St, @ Xavier and Florida St, and a bunch of solid mid major work too and you have a very strong top four. Everyone is talking down the SEC this year. The West? Gross. But the East is going to do some real damage.

Conference rankings:
1. Big East
2. Big 12
3. SEC (wow, believe it baby)
4. Big 10
5. Mountain West
6. ACC
7. Atlantic 10
8. Pac 10

Ten sleeper teams to keep an eye on...
10. Montana - They beat UCLA, who beat BYU. But mostly I wanted to have 10 teams.
9. Gonzaga - Some nice wins like usual but nothing over a sure tourney team and already a few conference losses. Not even a tournament lock, and the idea that this was a preseason Final Four squad seems ludicrous.
8. Utah St - We've seen this before. They're cruising but the only two games against tourney teams were ugly losses in BYU and Gtown. Not good enough to compete with the big boys.
7. Butler - Like Gonzaga, only home wins and no huge ones, and starting to get enough conference losses to possibly miss all together.
6. Wichita - There's always someone in MVC that makes noise, and this team looks best to me. They've lost close ones to UConn and SD St, just haven't beat much yet.
5. Old Dominion - I actually like the resume a lot, just concerned they could miss out with some CAA losses. But they've swept the top of the A10 and only lost by 3 in Gtown. Very nice stuff.
4. College of Charleston - Very impressive numbers and a solid profile overall. Close losses at UNC, Clemson, and Maryland build character, and the road win in Tennessee should stand up.
3. Oakland - This is a team you should watch for in March. They won at Tennessee and lost by just 1 to Michigan St, and they've already played four games against other tourney teams too.
2. Belmont - Definitely a very legit team. Senior laden squad, been there before. They've lost 3 games by single digits at Tenn and Vandy and are just slaughtering all other competition. You WILL hear from this team in March.
1. St Mary's - Not sure if this really qualifies as a sleeper but clearly the best team on this list. They lost by just 1 at BYU and also lost at SD St and Vandy but are throttling teams otherwise and are top 10 in the nation in points, assists, and field goal percentage. Definite sweet 16 threat.

First college hoops rankings

So I havent really paid any attention to college hoops this season. I've probably seen the ending of like 5 games. But basically I came to this today with an utterly clean slate. I have an idea who the top 5 or so teams are in the rankings, but I know very little. And I made myself make this entire rankings without checking out the national rankings, even now as I type this I still don't know. I know very little about what expectations were going into the year or even who is on what team, so I'm going almost entirely off of empirical data. So here are my rankings and then a comment, esp if it turns out that my ranking is far off from national perception.

1. Pittsburgh - Only one loss, a solid one, and 3 giant wins over Texas, UConn, and Cuse. Easy #1.
2. UConn - Two giant wins over Nova and @Texas plus also wins against UK, Tenn, and Michigan State. And the leader in the player of the year race. Heck of a profile. No idea how this team is only #8 in the polls.
3. Texas - Only #10 in the polls but two of the three losses are to my #1 and #2 teams. No one in the nation has a better pair of road wins, at Kansas and at Michigan State.
4. Nova - Two good losses and the monster win at Syracuse this weekend.
5. Cuse - A little overrated, just because they haven't done much yet. No road tests and home wins against NDame and Cincy only get you so far. And yes, 4 of my 5 teams are Big East.

6. Duke - Poor Michigan St has lost to 4 of my top 6 teams including Duke. But the other "big" wins are against teams who were more highly regarded then than now, and the ACC is incredibly weak, so jury's still a little bit out.
7. Kansas - No win yet against a sure tourney team, though probably Arizona or UCLA make it. Still, the 2nd half disaster at home against Texas leaves some question marks.
8. SD St - Not a lot of big name wins, but wins against Wichita and St Mary's and at Gonzaga are very strong. We'll see how they play on the road in Provo this week.
9. Ohio St - Yeah... not my #1. Sorry nation. They haven't lost, but have they played anyone? They have road wins against Illinois and both Florida state schools. Solid, but I'm unconvinced. I'm much lower on all the Big Ten teams than the rest of the country.
10. BYU - Like SD St, a surprisingly strong profile. Both these teams are going to finish up with 3-4 losses and seeds in the same range in March.

11. Notre Dame - Only 16th nationally and they do have some losses they shouldn't, but man they have a lot of good wins. Wisc, Gonz, Gtown, Cincy, Marq, and UConn are a nice slate to throw up there. Need to bone up on the road in a bad way though.
12. Kentucky - Not overrated. Not underrated. Just rated.
13. Texas A&M - Nice wins against Washington and Mizzou, but like ND, need to win on the road.
14. Mich St - Probably will be barely in the national top 25, but can't we just ignore the losses to UConn, Texas, Cuse, and Duke? I mean, come on, schedule maker! Take those four away and this is still the 2nd best Big 10 team.
15. Washington - Pac 10 is not as bad as the nation thinks. Good for you JJ. Washington has a solid profile and good road conference wins too. They could compile a pretty strong record.

16. Tennessee - Not surprisingly, this team is nowhere near the national rankings. They didn't even receive any votes, which means technically they are at best #49 in the nation's ranks. And yeah, there are some ugly looking losses... but don't those offset pretty well two wins against Pitt and Nova?! As good as any pair of wins in the country plus a loaded slate of underrated nonconference games including good wins against Belmont twice, VCU, and Memphis and losses that aren't so terrible to Oakland and Charleston. Still this team's margin of error is zero for making the tournament.
17. Gtown - Pretty big pair of road wins in Memphis and Mizzou. Not a great Big East start but plenty of time still to see what they've got. Underrated nationally.
18. Mizzou
19. Cincy - Neither of those two teams have really proven a lot for better or worse yet. Why is Mizzou ranked 12 spots higher?
20. Florida - A couple really ugly losses, but nice road wins in Xavier, Tennessee, and FSU.

21. West Va
22. Purdue
23. Wisc - Big Ten is very overrated. These teams have beaten no one.
24. Fla St - On the strength of the Duke win.
25. Vandy - Yep, four SEC teams in the top 25. I was surprised.

Public perception has Big 10 as a strong 2nd best conference behind Big East. I have them about equal to the "struggling" SEC overall. Big 12 is definitely 2nd best for me so far.

Games to keep an eye on this week... Rankings mine. I have Marquette as a big mover this week. Possibly two huge home wins and could jump from NR to #15 range:

M - 11 ND @ 1 Pitt
T - 2 UConn @ Marq... 21 Pur @ 9 Oh St
W - 8 SD St @ 10 BYU... 21 WVa @ Lville
R - St Mary @ Gonz... UCLA @ Ari
S - 2 Syr @ Marq... 17 Gtown @ 4 Nova... 18 Mizz @ 3 Tex... 21 WVa @ 19 Cin... Xav @ Rich

Aussie Open

One of the top 5 seeds will win the Australian Open. This is not a cop out pick, just what will happen. Tennis, especially the Grand Slams, usually rides on the momentum gained coming into the tournament. With not a whole lot of tournament play before the Aussie Open, it comes down to talent. The top 5 are the top 5 for a reason. Nadal is probably the best player in the world right now, and I say probably only because I am a Federer fan. Nadal can serve decently well, has KILLER ground strokes, and is one of the fastest guys in tennis today. This makes him hard to beat. Federer is the smartest player in tennis, and will be hard to beat. It's cliche to pick them in the final, but I am going to have to do that. I am taking Nadal, and he might be the pick in all 4 Grand Slams this year, because he is just that good.

The saddest part for me about tennis is this: American tennis is in a pathetic state. Seriously, the Americans in this tournament have zero chance at winning anything. Andy Roddick is a solid player, but he won't win another Grand Slam, he's not consistent enough with his ground strokes. John Isner is probably our best hope, but I think he has a LOT of work to become a great player. I am hoping we have the next Agassi coming soon, because I hate not having a decent American player to cheer for.

My boys...

The Hawks lost...a game they could have easily won...here's why they lost:

1) Big Play Babs failed to capitalize on Cutler - Babineaux had 2 first half picks he missed, and one of those was a 14 point swing as they scored not long after that. I mean, Cutler threw it RIGHT TO HIM! Those 2 picks could have easily swung the outcome.

2) Couldn't catch - Hass played GREAT. Last week his WRs caught the ball, this week not so much. They couldn't get separation, and couldn't hold on when Hass would hit them in the hands. Not that Matt couldn't have been better per say, but the drops and lack of separation didn't help him at all.

3) Line of Scrimmage - Dominated on both sides, the defensive line did a lot better than the O-line, especially in the 2nd half. But that being said, they still got manhandled. Our run game was non-existent, unlike last week, and it was just a sad showing. Must be better than that to have a chance to win...

4) Special teams - John Ryan didn't punt well, and while Hester only had maybe 1 good return, it was a momentum boost for the team that had all the momentum all game, and demoralized an already overwhelmed Hawks team.

5) 10 AM start - One of the most over-talked about aspects of West Coast teams, I really think that they were affected by it. They didn't look ready to start, and didn't look like they were awake or anything.

6) Tackling - 'nuff said...

I was really up and hoping for a win, hosting an NFC Championship