NCAA rankings - Mar 7 - by seed

This week my top 25 turned into a top 50, which was not fun. Teams 40-50 are pretty dreadful. I do not envy the committee's decision. Btw this was written before the last couple days of ball so I'm going to ignore the last couple days of results for this below. Anyway, here is my top 50 teams in order, but broken down by seed...

#1 seeds (overall #1-#4)
Pittsburgh, Ohio St, Notre Dame, Kansas
And I think the dropoff after these four is huge. Comparing Duke's profile to someone like Pitt or ND is a joke. Duke has four wins over sure tournament teams and their second best win (after UNC) is over Marquette. Both Pitt and ND beat Marquette too, but they each have NINE other more valuable wins. This shouldn't even be a discussion.

#2 seeds (overall #5-#8)
Syracuse, Wisconsin, Purdue, St. John's
I've really come full circle on all of these teams, who I started either down on or ignoring completely a couple months ago. The Cuse is a #1 seed disguised as a 3 or 4 right now due to an awful two week stretch, and these two Big Ten squads will be very tough outs and are very much Final Four threats.

#3 seeds (overall #9-#12)
Duke, Texas, UNC, BYU
And yet some or all four of these teams will end up seeded higher than this. I don't think we can give BYU a top 10 ranking anymore, not as things look right now. If they beat New Mexico and then SDSt or UNLV handily, I will give them a 2. I do think that Duke or UNC can have St. John's spot as a 2 seed if/when they win the ACC tourney. And Texas is a real wildcard, a team that was my #1 overall only a month ago but is fading quickly with now five very average looking losses.

#4 seeds (overall #13-#16)
Cincy, Louisville, Florida, UConn
I believe that 4-13 is the new 5-12 upset in this year's format, and these teams are all ripe for the picking if they were facing some of this year's top mid majors like Belmont or Oakland. Cincy continues to get no national love but their profile is pretty clearly better than Lville and UConn with a trio of solid road wins and all seven losses to worthy top 20 opponents. Florida might deserve better than this and could move up a line if they move as easily through the SEC tourney as they did through the regular season, but for now the early season losses are still an eyesore.

#5 seeds (overall #17-#20)
Kentucky, Georgetown, West Virginia, San Diego St
If BYU is not quite a top 10 team, then SDSt is barely in the top 20. I just don't think we know enough about this team to push them that much higher than other unknown quantities like Utah St or Belmont. Georgetown is fading fast without Chris Wright and could (should) drop some, and I still haven't figured out this UK team but I have a feeling Coach Cal will have his boys ready for an SEC tourney run.

#6 seeds (overall #21-#24)
Kansas St, Villanova, Vanderbilt, UCLA
Nova is another of those Big East teams that is really fading fast. I know these guard-driven teams perform well in tourneys, but there's a reason I wasn't shocked by (and in fact predicted) the USF loss yesterday. KSt is a team no one wants as a 6 or 7 seed in their bracket. They're playing right now like the 2 seed they were last year. And Vandy is always a 6 seed, aren't they?

#7 seeds (overall #25-#28)
Marquette, Arizona, Utah St, Michigan St
Ah yes, four teams that seem to be on the bubble for most but I have safely in and seeded pretty well. Marquette is my 11th Big East team and I don't think there's any question. No other bubble teams can say they've beaten West Va, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and UConn. Heck no one else in the Big East even beat both the Irish and the Orange. Cmon now. I still believe in this Sean Miller Zona team, and like I mentioned above, we don't know enough about this Utah St to know much what to do with them. I don't think Michigan St is a bubble team at all. They're a victim of a killer schedule, that's all. They have only one loss to a team entirely out of the tourney picture, two if you count at Penn St and I don't think you should, and there are four Ws over tourney teams. This is a team that played UConn, Duke, Cuse, and Texas in nonconference. Replace those with the usual nonconference patsies and the Buckeyes are 22-9 and no one thinks twice.

#8 seeds (overall #29-#32)
Belmont, Missouri, UNLV, Texas A&M
Two teams I love and two I hate. I can't wait to see where my Belmont Bruins end up seeded. If they get a 12 or 13 like I hope, they're a likely sweet sixteen squad for me. I think this was a tourney team with or without winning the A-Sun tourney, and I don't think it was close either. What's different than Utah St? They're better, for starters. I also think UNLV is a bit underrated and lost in the MWC shuffle. They could end up the only team vying for a sweet 16 spot. I am not a believer in these two Big 12 squads at all, both of whom have lost to no one special and beaten no one special. Woohoo.

#9 seeds (overall #33-#36)
Illinois, Temple, Tennessee, Georgia
Some similar teams in here. With Georgia and Temple, they just don't have a lot for or against the ol resume to know much about them. Nothing to dislike though, and Georgia is a non-bubble entity for me, very safely in the mix. Illinois will be safely in on the strength of beating a couple teams in Wisky and UNC whose wins look a lot better now than they should when the Illini beat them. And the Vols are one of those oh-no-this-9-seed-could-beat-the-1-seed-woops-they-lost-to-UNLV-first-somehow type teams that I love so very much.

#10 seeds (overall #37-#40)
Xavier, Gonzaga, Florida St, St. Mary's
Again all teams that are very safely in the fold for me. It's telling that FSU is clearly the 3rd ACC team and yet is only my #39 overall... telling in that I think we need to be careful with how we rate UNC and Duke. Then again Duke faced a bad conference last year and if I remember right, they did ok in the tourney. To me Gonzaga and St Mary's are both definite tournament teams. They look the part, they play the part, and St Mary's shouldn't miss from one rough 10 day stretch when they're a tourney team the other 4 months of the season. Xavier is in but will be overseeded.

#11 seeds (overall #41-#44)
Washington, Old Dominion, USC, Colorado
#42 is the cutoff for me, so Washington and ODU are safely in but the rest are bubble teams. Old Dominion is in and safe now anyway. Washington could be in some heat if they lose to Wazzu a third time though. They swept UCLA and beat Arizona but I couldn't tell you what else they've done worth a darn. Actually USC is a team people are finally starting to talk about that I think is on the right side of the bubble. They did as well as anyone in conference play and boast wins over Texas and Tennessee outside of it... but yeah those losses to Rider, Bradley, TCU, and Oregon St are tough to swallow. We've reached the top of the bubble for me, whereby I can overlook a bunch of rough losses if you also scored some big wins. Show me you can dance. Colorado beat Texas and swept K State. I hope you dance.

#12 seeds (overall #45-#50)
Alabama, Nebraska, Richmond, Va Tech, Oklahoma St, Michigan
Bama should be in the tourney on the basis of a strong SEC season including wins over UK, Tennessee, and Georgia... but they couldn't be too upset if they missed either. That this team should maybe get in over an 11th Big East team is pretty silly to me. Just take a look, the Tide lost to Seton Hall and Providence themselves. They would probably have been South Florida if in the Big East. Yikes. Nebraska doesn't even seem to be on folks' bubble radar, nor Okie St. Can't say I'm surprised. Neither has done anything away from home, but both have some solid wins there and only a couple rough losses. I do think Richmond ought to be in. Going 13-3 in the A10 and adding a win over Purdue should leave you pretty safe, hopefully not in one of those play-in games. I think VT is still in by virtue of being the clear #4 ACC team.. but barely. And Michigan quite frankly I hope doesn't make it. It's ironically their wins over two of my favs Oakland and Harvard that boost them to my last spot.

Note some teams who are missing from my list... George Mason and Butler in particular. I just see a bunch of losses to non-tourney teams and only one win over a sure tourney team between the two of them. Yeah Butler is safely in now on the auto-bid, but I don't think either of these teams is an at large profile even at all. Butler better not get like a 6 or 7 seed. I think both of these teams might.

This first four thing COULD be really cool. Let's say Harvard falls to Princeton. I have them as just barely on the wrong side of the bubble... but can you imagine a game of say Harvard vs USC for one 12 seed spot? Sign me up for that. Or how about George Mason and Alabama? I can get interested in that. But instead I know we're going to get some craptastic matchup like Colorado-Michigan that I wouldn't watch if it were the only game on the air. Who really cares which of those teams win? I sure don't.