Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Some championship week predictions

I have my top 25 for this week done from a day ago, pending when I get some time to post it. It's actually a top 50, aka a Bubble breakdown too, so hopefully soon. In the mean time, let's talk about some conference tournament predictions. Loves me some brackets. First, some winners in those future 15-16 seed conferences. Of the teams below, I love Oakland to make some noise and I could see the BSky winner doing something, otherwise nothin to see here...

Boston U (AMEC), Montana (BSky), Long Beach (BWest), Miami (MAC), Bethune (MEAC), Long Island (NEC), Bucknell (Patriot), Sam Houston (Southland), Oakland (Summit), N Texas (S Belt), Tex Southern (SWAC)

WAC - Utah St easily and then an overseed and another early out
Horizon - Butler, though I really want Milwaukee to win and then Butler to miss the tourney because I just dont see why they are an at large lock. Oakland has a better profile.
CUSA - UTEP over UAB. Single bid league this year, Memphis sucks now.
Ivy - Harvard. Princeton loses today @Penn. I'd really would love a sudden death game but I'll take Harvard any way I can get em.
A10 - Temple over Duquesne... Xavier still in safely, Richmond in but a play-in game

And the big ones...

M West - UNLV over New Mexico. Going off the board on this one. I think BYU drops to the NMex/ColSt winner and I really think UNLV is an underrated squad plus they get the home tourney. BYU drops to a questionable 4 seed, Col St falls off the bubble, and NMex makes a late push to grab a spot but comes up short.

Pac 10 - USC over UCLA. I really like USC a lot. Wish they were getting some more bubble love but even getting to the final probably wouldn't be enough. I like them to finish the job. I do think Washington beats Wazzu to solidify its bid, and I still like Arizona, just not in this tourney. Pac10 a little underrated. I'd actually like all 4 teams coming out in this scenario (Wazzu out).

Big 10 - Ohio St over Wisconsin, but in a much better game than Sunday. Let's just say the Buckeyes won't shoot 14 for 15 from the arc again. Still Ohio St is a near lock here for me. I think both Michigan and Michigan St lose early and leave themselves firmly on the bubble... and I think Izzo's boys still get in over Michigan despite being swept by the Wolverines. Panic everywhere, right up until Sparty wins yet another tourney game in an upset.

SEC - Kentucky over Georgia, Tennessee over Vandy, and UK wins in a great final. I have no idea though honestly. I could see Georgia making a run in Atlanta. I could see Tennessee making a big run or losing their first game. Vandy loses to Florida or Tennessee. I don't like Florida to win this, and I do think UK is underrated and Coach Cal loves winning conference tourneys.

ACC - UNC over Boston College, Duke over Florida St, Duke over UNC. I went into this thinking no way I'd set up the dream matchup of Duke-UNC III but I just don't see how it can be anything else because the ACC is so bad this year. I might pick FSU to beat UNC if they were on the other side of the bracket, but the Heels aren't losing to BC or Clemson and Duke just flat out isn't losing the ACC tournament. They pull away in the final and win with ease to lock up the last 1 seed.

Big 12 - KU over Colorado, Baylor over Mizzou, Kansas survives Baylor in the final. This is a conference I had no idea what to do with. So many talented but up and down teams. I like K St a lot, loved Texas a month ago, and hate both Mizzou and A&M. And I still don't know what I'll do with Kansas, who by all means should be a near Final Four lock but just never seems to do the job when it matters.

Big 12 - Ahh the big one. Let's get a real breakdown here...

Notre Dame gets the easiest semi final path with an easy one over Cincy, who beats USF after a surprise early Nova exit. Huggy Bear gets his boys up for another tourney run with a big win over Marquette and then a Louisville take down, but the Irish survive West Va and get to the final.

The other half of the bracket is much more loaded and intriguing to me. That St Johns and Syracuse matchup could be a real classic... but I fear with the pressure suddenly on St John's it may not happen, and I think they may have peaked about a month too early. I like the Orange. UConn has the most brutal path of anyone. Do we realize for them to win this, they'd have to beat DePaul, Gtown, Pitt, Cuse/StJn, and then ND/Lville on five consecutive days? Yeah, good luck with that....... except I think they get real close. I like UConn to barely get by DePaul before stomping Gtown and then outlasting Pitt in a thriller. But I like Syracuse in this half of the bracket and overall. I'll take Syracuse over Notre Dame in a final that boosts Cuse to a 2 seed and Notre Dame to a 1 taking Pittsburgh's spot.

We do realize that just on Thursday, we could see the following Big East games: Pitt-UConn at noon followed by St Johns-Cuse, then a nightcap of Notre Dame-Cincy and Louisville-West Va. We realize that, right? Holy cow. Let's get the party started.

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