Let's go through the major conferences and share my opinion on them as a whole, then point out a few teams that I like as potential March Cinderellas. Off we go...
Atlantic 10 - Very solid overall. Temple and Xavier are a great 1-2 punch, and Richmond has a couple rough losses but a good profile too. Between those three they've got wins over Georgetown, Purdue, and Butler. Here's guessing at least one sweet 16 team rises again.
ACC - I am astonished at how poor the ACC grades out overall. Collectively as an entire conference, the best road win by *any* ACC team is probably either Maryland @ Penn St or Clemson @ College of Charleston. Go ahead and read that again. Duke has a solid slate and FSU holds up nicely, but these teams have done very little after that. They were dominated in the Big 10 Challenge by a conference I already think is overrated. So... yikes. I'm really not sure who is going dancing past Duke. Probably FSU and UNC but anyone else? I repeat... yikes.
Big 12 - Very impressive overall. There are no real monster wins and the only noteworthy road win is Texas @ Mich St. Still the top 5 teams (clearly Texas, KU, A&M, Mizzou, K St) all have 2-3 good solid nonconference wins and not really any terrible or egregious losses. Looking like one of the stronger conferences overall and potentially two #1 seeds. It's also a deeper conference than usual where even teams like Colorado and Nebraska can beat anyone any given night.
Big East - The SEC of college hoops. I count as many as 11 possible March squads, and a couple of the teams that could miss (Marquette, St Johns) would probably be top 3-4 squads in the ACC. Big East has the only two wins over Texas, including one on the road, and a road win in Mizzou too. Add in a couple wins over Mich St, UK, Wisc, and then just the cannibalization of each other and the Big East will reign again. Easy #1 conference. Probably the #2 conference too.
Big 10 - Upon second glance, not as bad as I first thought. There aren't any great standout wins... the best is probably Mich St over Washington. But there are road wins in Florida, Florida St, Marquette, and Gonzaga, and they dominated the ACC this year. Still, you get a few teams at the bottom who just lose to everyone, and in the rest of the games, it's always home team wins. It's hard to gather much info from that. Can Ohio State really be a #1 seed if they finish the year without a win against a top 15 squad?
Mountain West - Strong and top heavy, but overrated still. There's no reason San Diego St should be #4 in the nation right now, undefeated or not. Still SD St and BYU have some very strong profiles against all of the other top mid majors. They have the only two wins over Utah St and 2 of the only 3 wins over St Marys, plus Gonzaga, Wichita, and Arizona. For mid majors, very nice. But still mid majors. The projections of a #2 seed are not happening. On Selection Sunday these teams will be 5 and 6 seeds, probably facing other mid major sleepers, and everyone will be outraged. Yet again.
Pac 10 - Somehow it's USC that has the biggest nonconference wins - both of them - over Texas and at Tennessee, while also piling up gross losses to Rider, Bradley, TCU, and Oregon St that will doom them on Selection Sunday. UCLA does have the only victory over BYU so far, and Wazzu took down Gonzaga and Baylor, but there's not a whole lot going on. It's going to be hard for these teams to build March profiles when all that's left is beating up on each other and a bunch of top-50-but-not-much-better squads.
SEC - The SEC is really quite underrated. Tennessee has the best pair of wins in the nation with Pitt and Nova victories. Kentucky has a noble trio of N Dame, Washington, and @ Louisville. Add in Florida and Vandy's victories over St Marys, K St, @ Xavier and Florida St, and a bunch of solid mid major work too and you have a very strong top four. Everyone is talking down the SEC this year. The West? Gross. But the East is going to do some real damage.
Conference rankings:
1. Big East
2. Big 12
3. SEC (wow, believe it baby)
4. Big 10
5. Mountain West
6. ACC
7. Atlantic 10
8. Pac 10
Ten sleeper teams to keep an eye on...
10. Montana - They beat UCLA, who beat BYU. But mostly I wanted to have 10 teams.
9. Gonzaga - Some nice wins like usual but nothing over a sure tourney team and already a few conference losses. Not even a tournament lock, and the idea that this was a preseason Final Four squad seems ludicrous.
8. Utah St - We've seen this before. They're cruising but the only two games against tourney teams were ugly losses in BYU and Gtown. Not good enough to compete with the big boys.
7. Butler - Like Gonzaga, only home wins and no huge ones, and starting to get enough conference losses to possibly miss all together.
6. Wichita - There's always someone in MVC that makes noise, and this team looks best to me. They've lost close ones to UConn and SD St, just haven't beat much yet.
5. Old Dominion - I actually like the resume a lot, just concerned they could miss out with some CAA losses. But they've swept the top of the A10 and only lost by 3 in Gtown. Very nice stuff.
4. College of Charleston - Very impressive numbers and a solid profile overall. Close losses at UNC, Clemson, and Maryland build character, and the road win in Tennessee should stand up.
3. Oakland - This is a team you should watch for in March. They won at Tennessee and lost by just 1 to Michigan St, and they've already played four games against other tourney teams too.
2. Belmont - Definitely a very legit team. Senior laden squad, been there before. They've lost 3 games by single digits at Tenn and Vandy and are just slaughtering all other competition. You WILL hear from this team in March.
1. St Mary's - Not sure if this really qualifies as a sleeper but clearly the best team on this list. They lost by just 1 at BYU and also lost at SD St and Vandy but are throttling teams otherwise and are top 10 in the nation in points, assists, and field goal percentage. Definite sweet 16 threat.
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