It was a bloodbath in the top 25 this week. Five of my top six teams took a loss, and the Big East was a mess this week. But note a few big wins by teams I called underrated last week, and a couple losses from teams I questioned as overrated too. Let's get to the rankings including a new #1...
1. Texas (3) - Starting to get noticed nationally after 3 of their last 4 games were big wins over top 25 squads, but one big road test remains this Wednesday at A&M, who they beat by 21 two weeks ago. Win that one and they might not lose again til tourney time.
2. Pitt (1) - My top team from a week ago took a surprising home loss to the Irish but there was enough of a mess at the top to not fall too far. Might be in it for the long haul with wins over UConn, Cuse, and Gtown and no return trips coming.
3. UConn (2) - Like Pitt, took a surprising home loss to Louisville this week. Like Pitt, too much turmoil to fall too far.
4. Ohio St (9) - Still a rather uninspiring slate of wins, but the only team left without a loss and looking pretty dominant in wins, no matter who they're facing.
5. Kansas (7) - Moved them up on the basis of the Big 12 ranking, even if they don't have a win over a sure tournament yet. But the only loss is to Texas and they only have 2 losable games left on the schedule. Looks like a #1 seed, like it or not.
6. Notre Dame (11) - I noted last week that the Irish were piling up an impressive slate of wins but needed that big road win to put a stamp on the season. How does @Pitt sound? Add that to UConn, Gtown, Marq, Wisc, and more.
7. Georgetown (17) - They've rebounded nicely after a rough Big East start and now added a big win at Villanova. This team is one to watch in March - they've got some really nice road wins, nice enough to offset 5 losses, all to top 25 teams.
8. San Diego St (8) - Yeah, they lost. But on the road to BYU in a tight game - that's a good loss. That's probably a better loss than an undefeated season, character building.
9. BYU (9) - The win over SDSt was more than offset by an awful follow up loss at New Mexico that should cool down the national Jimmer love for awhile.
10. Kentucky (12) - So young and inconsistent, and these next two weeks will be telling with road trips to Miss, Fla, and Vandy. Still need to put things together for 40 minutes.
11. Villanova (4) - That win at Syracuse seems long ago and pretty watered down at this point, and the loss at Providence this week puts a real damper on the season. Good chance for a rebound week with home games against Marq and WVa.
12. Duke (6) - That was not pretty yesterday. And neither is this overall resume. Duke does not even have a victory yet over a surefire tournament team, and they're not looking fantastic in wins either. Even worse, the best road win is at NC St. Up next at Maryland this week, where they always have trouble.
13. Texas A&M (13) - This is a team that is great at home, has done nothing on the road, and in need of a marquee win for the resume. Enter new #1 Texas.
14. Tennessee (16) - Easy week here but gearing up for make or break games at Kentucky and Florida next week. Season saver or ruiner.
15. Marquette (NR) - I told you it would be a big week. This team is underrated nationally still even after the Syracuse win, but they're going to have to prove it - on the road. They travel to Nova and Gtown in the next two weeks, with at UConn on tap too. Every other game is an easy one but they're going to have to win those and get another one or two of those big road games to go dancing.
16. Washington (15)
17. Syracuse (5) - Quite a tumble, but I'm no longer a believer until proven otherwise. They need to right the ship in a hurry - at UConn on Wednesday. Yikes.
18. Missouri (18)
19. Arizona (NR) - Very close to becoming the team to beat in the Pac 10, but hard to know if that means very much this year. Still, only one even sort of bad loss plus three that most teams would've lost (@BYU, @Wash, vs KU). Only problem is they haven't beaten anyone yet and won't get a chance to in this conference.
20. Louisville (NR) - Time to show a little respect after a wins over WVa and at UConn and the second best Big East record, but I'm not convinced. The three best wins are by just 1 point. Due for a letdown.
21. Purdue (22)
22. St. John's (NR) - Ok, crushing Duke win. Just another huge win for the Big East. Don't look now but Steve Lavin's team now has wins over Duke, ND, and Gtown, but still no margin for error.
23. West Va (21)
24. Temple (NR) - My top team in the A10, though they haven't notched any big conference wins yet. The one over Gtown should hold up pretty well.
25. Cincy (19) - Yup... that's 11 Big East teams in my top 25.
Don't let the door hit you on your way out - Mich St (14), Florida (20), Wisc (23), Fla St (24), Vandy (25)
Big games this week...
M - 1 Texas @ 13 A&M, 20 Louisville @ 7 Georgetown
T - Vandy @ Florida, Purdue @ Wisconsin
W - 17 Cuse @ 3 UConn, 15 Marquette @ 11 Nova, 12 Duke @ Maryland
S - 25 Cincy @ 2 Pitt, 23 West Va @ 11 Nova, 10 UK @ Florida
Well it looks like Texas may have a strangehold on my #1 position now after a 20 point beatdown at A&M. That is a shockingly dominant victory over a team that is really quite great at home. In Texas's last 5 games now, they have wins by 21, 11, 15, 13, and 20... over teams that were ranked #10, #2, NR, #13, and #16 at the time. Wow. The Horns will be a double digit favorite until the second week of March now, unless they face KU in the Big 12 tournament.
ReplyDeleteThe national rankings thought Lville-Gtown was a toss up. It turns out it mostly was.. but my better team came through in the end, and maybe that's what matters.
ReplyDeleteI was a bit surprised to see ND and UK enter the national top 10 as well. Good job, nation. But AWFUL job putting Purdue at #11. Really?! I have them 10 spots lower and no other Big Ten squads in the rankings while Wisc, Minn, AND Ill are all ranked nationally. Truly terrible. These teams have beaten no one. I have Minny and Illinois as bubble teams right now even. So strange.
Surprised to see a few other changes reflect my poll pretty closely too. I dropped Nova and Cuse to 11 and 17 as pretty major drops, but they fell to 12 and 17 in the real polls too. I also moved Washington down a few spots, very close to Arizona, and that was reflected as well.
My biggest complaint this week is of course Duke. They got walloped and dropped only 2 spots?! They're #5 nationally but #12 for me. Show me something, Duke.
On a related note, I moved St. John's into my top 25... and they got exactly 1 vote nationally. I also have Tenn and Marq in my top 15 and they got 4 and 23 votes. Well then.
One other note - it looks very much like Texas and Kansas should meet in the Big 12 title game. If they do, they'll be playing for the #1 overall seed in March, but they'll probably both be 1 seeds at this point.
ReplyDeleteOhio St seems to have a stranglehold on a 1 seed too, but I won't lock it in just yet. They still have their 3 toughest Big Ten roadies yet, so let's just hold on a minute and let them face some real competition.
The last 1 seed looks like it could be Duke's to lose nationally. If it were up to me, I'd give two 1s to Texas/KU and the other two 1s to the top two Big East teams. I don't see any way I'd seed OhSt or Duke above a 2. They just don't have the big wins, and they won't by March either.