Regardless of brackets and seeding and everything else, time to take a look at 20 teams that have a realistic shot at the Final Four. Here they are below in reverse order:
20. St John's - Peaked a little too early, a bit too strong at home, and now DJ Kennedy is out for the year with that torn ACL. Talented team but would need to catch a lot of breaks.
19. Washington - Super talented team that has not really put everything together yet but seems to be getting there at just the right time. Will have to overcome a pretty tough path though.
18. San Diego St - They'll have a nice path. But they have a whopping total of 0 tourney wins in history.
17. UConn - Kemba is a beast but he just can't do it all on his own. UConn is going to get an overrated seed and overmatched expectations. They had their fun already.
16. BYU - Go Jimmer, but like UConn, he can only do so much. Still, he COULD send them to a Final Four in a perfect run like Steph Curry had a few years ago. But otherwise sex cost this team a spot in my top five. Hope it was worth it.
15. Notre Dame - That's right, one of my #1 seeds. Still below average on defense, over relient on 3 point shooting. Can't be perfect on offense every game.
14. Louisville - Just looks like another Lville squad, a very tough out and a tough team to match up with but too inconsistent to make a really long run.
13. Kentucky - Uber talented, sky is the limit with these youngsters, but this is another one of those Coach Cal teams and I have learned my lesson with them. Heartbreak to come.
12. Arizona - If I'm going to rely on one guy to do it all, I'd rather it be Derrick Williams. And I don't mind putting some eggs into Sean Miller's basket either.
11. Kansas St - I know the seed won't be great, and the path will be tough. But Pullen is playing like a POY contender and the early season woes are long past. Might be hard to overcome their path but not a team folks want in their quadrant.
10. Wisconsin - It's an ugly team like usual but man is this team efficient, and they are pretty tough to match up with too. They play so slow and deliberate, they don't turn the ball over, and they are going to be really tough for anyone to beat, especially some of the highly ranked very young teams without big time experience.
9. Texas - As talented as any team in the country, but they seem to have peaked about a month ago and have this knack for playing down to the competition. I have a name for that "knack." I call it Rick Barnes. He might be too much for Jordan Hamilton to overcome.
8. Purdue - Etwaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson are a pretty awesome 1-2 punch, and they bring great senior leadership to the squad as well. I'm a big believer in Matt Painter, and I believe this team can absolutely make a run to the Final Four.
7. Florida - This team started slow but is absolutely rolling since, and Billy Donovan knows what strings to pull. Parsons is the real deal, and Florida will be a very dangerous 3 or 4 seed in the right bracket draw.
6. UNC - Talentwise, this team can absolutely hang with anyone in the country. Since Marshall took over the PG duties, Harrison Barnes seems to have come into his own as well, and no other team in the country has a 1-2 punch like that. I'd have them at #2 if this team wasn't so young and played like it at times.
5. Syracuse - My favorite non-1-seed team right now. Boeheim's boys always play well at tourney time. They have been there before, they're a deep team, they play terrific defense, and now star freshman recruit Fab Melo seems to have turned the corner just in time. Easily my second best Big East squad heading into the bracket.
4. Duke - Not a complete believer here. Over relient on Nolan Smith with Singler taking a step back, and over relient on 3 point shooting as well. But I can't escape that it seems likely they'll be in a bracket with ND or SD St as the top other seed and that gives them a path where possibly only one team can really give them a game.
3. Pitt - Very talented all around team. Probably better on offense than defense, surprising for Pitt, but solid at both. Nothing feels special about this team, they're just really really hard to beat. Someone will have to play perfect to get em.
2. Kansas - This is the only team that has a shot of beating the Buckeyes if they're playing at 100%. KU is the most talented team and I rank them with a great shot at the Final Four, even with Bill Self weighing them down like usual.
1. Ohio St - This is the best team in the nation, and it doesn't look entirely close right now. They are great on both ends, and they have a whole bunch of guys who can step up and score. They're the favorite going in, and they should be.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Mock bracket
Happy Bracket Day!!! So exciting. Some crazy finishes yesterday and some other big results. San Diego St dominated BYU from start to finish. I'll give them a 4 seed and even a spot out west but they have just that one win over a top 35 team (and who knows what BYU is right now anyway?) so I can't put them higher than that. Kansas dominates Texas and could get the #1 overall seed with Ohio St's game in question today. Princeton breaks Harvard hearts everywhere. Penn St moves to the Big 10 final, secures their bid, and actually moves up to the #5 of 7 Big 10 tourney teams. UConn outlasts Lville in the Big East. Will be interesting to see how the committee ranks those two teams and Syracuse, ie how much stock it puts into this last week. I have Lville as a 2 and both UConn and Cuse as 3s in that order.
We have two great games on tap today, but I don't expect either to affect seeding much. Duke-UNC should be fantastic, but I have both teams locked in at 2 seeds with their only good win against each other. Kentucky-Florida should also be a lot of fun. I have Florida more deserving of a 3, UK a 5, but I have both as a 4 to make things easy today. Florida had a rough start but has really dominated the SEC. They could easily be a 2 seed if there was a better perception of the SEC this year. That being said, I have Duke and Kentucky winning these games today, Richmond winning the A10 (otherwise Dayton steals USC's spot), and Ohio St rolls easily.
I made a mock bracket. I used the teams and seeds I have mostly but tried to predict what the committee would do, ie moved a couple teams up or down as I think they are viewed. I did NOT give George Mason a spot though. Still just not a believer.
MIDWEST
1 Ohio St vs 16 Hampton
8 Xavier vs 9 Villanova
5 St Johns vs 12 Georgia / USC
4 BYU vs 13 Oakland
6 UCLA vs 11 St Mary's
3 Syracuse vs 14 Indiana St
7 Georgetown vs 10 Old Dominion
2 UNC vs 15 Long Island
My picks... Ohio St over Xavier, Oakland over Georgia, Cuse over St Marys, UNC over ODU... Ohio St over Syracuse
SOUTH
1 Kansas vs 16 UNC Asheville
8 Tennessee vs 9 Marquette
5 West Virginia vs 12 Virginia Tech / Alabama
4 Kentucky vs 13 Princeton
6 Cincinnati vs 11 Colorado
3 Purdue vs 14 Boston U
7 Washington vs 10 Belmont
2 Louisville vs 15 St Peters
My picks... Kansas over Marq, UK over WVa, Purdue over Colorado, Belmont over Lville... Purdue over Kansas
EAST
1 Pitt vs 16 Alabama St / UC Santa Barbara
8 Temple vs 9 Gonzaga
5 Kansas St vs 12 Memphis
4 Wisconsin vs 13 Bucknell
6 Texas A&M vs 11 Illinois
3 UConn vs 14 Akron
7 UNLV vs 10 Florida St
2 Texas vs 15 Morehead St
My picks... Pitt over Gonzaga, Wisc over K St, UConn over A&M, UNLV over Texas... Pitt over UNLV
WEST
1 Notre Dame vs 16 UT San Antonio / Ark Little Rock
8 Michigan St vs 9 Utah St
5 Arizona vs 12 Michigan
4 Florida vs 13 Butler
6 Vandy vs 11 Richmond
3 San Diego St vs 14 Wofford
7 Mizzou vs 10 Penn St
2 Duke vs 15 N Colorado
My picks... NDame over Utah St, Florida over Arizona, Vandy over SD St, Duke over Penn St... Duke over Florida
Final Four... Ohio St over Duke, Pitt over Purdue... Ohio St wins!
We have two great games on tap today, but I don't expect either to affect seeding much. Duke-UNC should be fantastic, but I have both teams locked in at 2 seeds with their only good win against each other. Kentucky-Florida should also be a lot of fun. I have Florida more deserving of a 3, UK a 5, but I have both as a 4 to make things easy today. Florida had a rough start but has really dominated the SEC. They could easily be a 2 seed if there was a better perception of the SEC this year. That being said, I have Duke and Kentucky winning these games today, Richmond winning the A10 (otherwise Dayton steals USC's spot), and Ohio St rolls easily.
I made a mock bracket. I used the teams and seeds I have mostly but tried to predict what the committee would do, ie moved a couple teams up or down as I think they are viewed. I did NOT give George Mason a spot though. Still just not a believer.
MIDWEST
1 Ohio St vs 16 Hampton
8 Xavier vs 9 Villanova
5 St Johns vs 12 Georgia / USC
4 BYU vs 13 Oakland
6 UCLA vs 11 St Mary's
3 Syracuse vs 14 Indiana St
7 Georgetown vs 10 Old Dominion
2 UNC vs 15 Long Island
My picks... Ohio St over Xavier, Oakland over Georgia, Cuse over St Marys, UNC over ODU... Ohio St over Syracuse
SOUTH
1 Kansas vs 16 UNC Asheville
8 Tennessee vs 9 Marquette
5 West Virginia vs 12 Virginia Tech / Alabama
4 Kentucky vs 13 Princeton
6 Cincinnati vs 11 Colorado
3 Purdue vs 14 Boston U
7 Washington vs 10 Belmont
2 Louisville vs 15 St Peters
My picks... Kansas over Marq, UK over WVa, Purdue over Colorado, Belmont over Lville... Purdue over Kansas
EAST
1 Pitt vs 16 Alabama St / UC Santa Barbara
8 Temple vs 9 Gonzaga
5 Kansas St vs 12 Memphis
4 Wisconsin vs 13 Bucknell
6 Texas A&M vs 11 Illinois
3 UConn vs 14 Akron
7 UNLV vs 10 Florida St
2 Texas vs 15 Morehead St
My picks... Pitt over Gonzaga, Wisc over K St, UConn over A&M, UNLV over Texas... Pitt over UNLV
WEST
1 Notre Dame vs 16 UT San Antonio / Ark Little Rock
8 Michigan St vs 9 Utah St
5 Arizona vs 12 Michigan
4 Florida vs 13 Butler
6 Vandy vs 11 Richmond
3 San Diego St vs 14 Wofford
7 Mizzou vs 10 Penn St
2 Duke vs 15 N Colorado
My picks... NDame over Utah St, Florida over Arizona, Vandy over SD St, Duke over Penn St... Duke over Florida
Final Four... Ohio St over Duke, Pitt over Purdue... Ohio St wins!
Saturday, March 12, 2011
College hoops: Conference finals
Big couple days of hoops here as we get about 15-20 bids sorted out still. It's not that ambiguous, I'm just too lazy to count. There are a bunch of random championship games that are all one bid leagues and low seeds, but a couple are worth noting before we talk about the big boys and what's at stake there...
Ivy - Play-in game between Harvard and Princeton today. Princeton won at home by 4, then Harvard won by 12 at home a week ago. Now the rematch at Yale. Should be a dandy. Harvard hasnt been dancing in 50 years. Just feels right. Harvard has a looongshot at large profile if they lose but I just don't see them getting in over someone like Alabama or Clemson sadly.
C-USA - Memphis vs UTEP in the final today. Top seed UAB lost to the 8 seed. I just see a lot of mediocrity here and absolutely a one bid league. The top nonconference wins are over teams like Gonzaga and Michigan, and there are plenty of questionable losses. I like UTEP since they're playing at home. It will just be wrong if Memphis or UAB steals someone's bid.
Atlantic 10 - It's the semi finals today. One matchup pits Temple vs Richmond, both teams safely in at this point. Richmond is near the edge but will either win beat Temple and be in easily or get a worthy loss and still be in. The only thing worth noting is the other side of the matchup, St Joe's (the 12 seed) vs Dayton. Neither of those teams has a shot but one of them will be playing for a bid tomorrow and could still a spot. I like Temple to take care of business like usual.
Big 10 - After a gross Friday of upsets, we don't have much drama left here. It's almost certain #1 and Big 10 champ Ohio St... along with three other teams who won't give them more of a speed bump this weekend but who all secured their spots with nice upset victories yesterday: Michigan, Michigan St, and Penn St. Huge day for the Big 10, who end up with 7 of their 11 teams dancing, though both Wisconsin and Purdue fall a seed after yesterday. Some might still have Penn St near the bubble so a win today couldn't hurt.
SEC - The top four teams from conference play remain so it should be a good finish. It's UK-Bama on one half and Florida-Vandy on the other. I think Florida or UK move up to a 3 seed if they win it. Vandy won't but could go up to a 5 or a longshot 4. Bama is the team with the most to play for. I have them as my second to last team in after beating Georgia yesterday and a win today would secure their spot. But I have UK beating Florida in the final and Bama sweating out a long day tomorrow waiting.
ACC - Two top seeds and two teams on the bubble. UNC plays Va Tech, who I have safely in with their win over FSU yesterday. A win today certainly couldn't hurt. The team with more to play for is Clemson, who gets a shot at likely Nolan-Smith-less Duke. I have Clemson as my second team out so they need this one. I just don't see how we don't get Duke UNC III tomorrow. Cross your fingers. I'll take UNC with yesterday's wakeup win and the Nolan injury.
Pac 10 - Washington and Arizona, two of my favorite sleeper teams. Both very easily in and probably 2 of only 3 Pac schools now. Wazzu is on the wrong side of the bubble, and I have USC as a last three team in but can't see the committee doing it after the NCAA just suspended their coach. Washington won by 17 at home and lost by 1 in Arizona on a wicked blocked shot by Derrick Williams. I think the Huskies are the favorites. I have Arizona as about a 6 seed and Washington as a 9. I don't see that changing much.
MWC - Here we go, BYU and San Diego St one last time... and it doesn't even seem to be on tv. Fantastic. Jimmer scored 52 yesterday. He shot 22 for 37. That's actually even crazier because 22 field goals (including 7 threes) is 51 points, so that means only 1 free throw. That's just a shooting clinic. Player of the year it is, then. He's had some big games against SD St and they'll need him again. I have a 4 seed and 5 seed for these two squads, winner getting the 4. Plenty at stake and lots will be watching if they can find it. I think these teams could still end up 2 and 3 seeds nationally if people have really bought into this. I am drooling over the thought of knocking a 2 seed SDSt out in round two (please God, not in a bracket with #1 Duke. ugh). I do like San Diego St to get this one and get the very high seed.
Big East - Well we've reshuffled the entire Big East deck the last couple days, and player of the year candidate Kemba Walker has come through yet again. I have Pitt and ND at a dead heat at the top. I'll give the edge to ND because they won the regular season matchup at Pitt, so they could get the 1 seed (huge upset alert - get ready to pick someone else for the Final Four). Both deserve 1 seeds but one could get snubbed for Duke. Good chance Duke and one of them are together in one of the brackets. I still have Syracuse as a solid 2 seed, and Louisville is there now as well with 5 wins over the top 4 Big East teams (other than themselves). UConn and St Johns are borderline 3-4 seeds. UConn could secure a 3 with a win tonight but I have to think Louisville's tempo will end this one early. There are still 5 more Big East teams safely in after that but none that I trust much in.
Big 12 - This is the golden egg of the games today with a Kansas and Texas rematch in the final. KU could still be the 1 overall seed and should be a 1 seed either way. Texas could potentially steal a #1 if they sweep the Jayhawks, but they're a pretty 2 seed. Still this is going to have a tourney feel, and both of these teams are top 5-7 contenders to cut down the nets. I like Kansas to win this one, but I hope it's a great game. It should be.
Bubble watch - I have Colorado, Florida St, Michigan, Georgia, Penn St, Richmond, and Va Tech all safely in, though one of those last two gets a play-in game. That leaves 3 spots left for me (really 2 because I know the committee is taking George Mason against all logic. I still think I'd rather take Harvard). I think Alabama is relatively safe. My other two spots are currently USC and Nebraska, with Clemson and Ok St my last two out. Can I say again how unexcited I am to see some combination of Richmond, Alabama, Va Tech, and Clemson playing play-in games on Tuesday? Then again it's better than McNeese St vs Grambling St so I guess I shouldn't complain. But seriously, stop letting these crapfest teams in. The bubble would be perfect with those 3 fewer spots.
Can't wait to see that bracket!! Should still get a great SEC final tomorrow, a fun A10 matchup, and Lord willing, hopefully Duke UNC III. Yes please. =]
Ivy - Play-in game between Harvard and Princeton today. Princeton won at home by 4, then Harvard won by 12 at home a week ago. Now the rematch at Yale. Should be a dandy. Harvard hasnt been dancing in 50 years. Just feels right. Harvard has a looongshot at large profile if they lose but I just don't see them getting in over someone like Alabama or Clemson sadly.
C-USA - Memphis vs UTEP in the final today. Top seed UAB lost to the 8 seed. I just see a lot of mediocrity here and absolutely a one bid league. The top nonconference wins are over teams like Gonzaga and Michigan, and there are plenty of questionable losses. I like UTEP since they're playing at home. It will just be wrong if Memphis or UAB steals someone's bid.
Atlantic 10 - It's the semi finals today. One matchup pits Temple vs Richmond, both teams safely in at this point. Richmond is near the edge but will either win beat Temple and be in easily or get a worthy loss and still be in. The only thing worth noting is the other side of the matchup, St Joe's (the 12 seed) vs Dayton. Neither of those teams has a shot but one of them will be playing for a bid tomorrow and could still a spot. I like Temple to take care of business like usual.
Big 10 - After a gross Friday of upsets, we don't have much drama left here. It's almost certain #1 and Big 10 champ Ohio St... along with three other teams who won't give them more of a speed bump this weekend but who all secured their spots with nice upset victories yesterday: Michigan, Michigan St, and Penn St. Huge day for the Big 10, who end up with 7 of their 11 teams dancing, though both Wisconsin and Purdue fall a seed after yesterday. Some might still have Penn St near the bubble so a win today couldn't hurt.
SEC - The top four teams from conference play remain so it should be a good finish. It's UK-Bama on one half and Florida-Vandy on the other. I think Florida or UK move up to a 3 seed if they win it. Vandy won't but could go up to a 5 or a longshot 4. Bama is the team with the most to play for. I have them as my second to last team in after beating Georgia yesterday and a win today would secure their spot. But I have UK beating Florida in the final and Bama sweating out a long day tomorrow waiting.
ACC - Two top seeds and two teams on the bubble. UNC plays Va Tech, who I have safely in with their win over FSU yesterday. A win today certainly couldn't hurt. The team with more to play for is Clemson, who gets a shot at likely Nolan-Smith-less Duke. I have Clemson as my second team out so they need this one. I just don't see how we don't get Duke UNC III tomorrow. Cross your fingers. I'll take UNC with yesterday's wakeup win and the Nolan injury.
Pac 10 - Washington and Arizona, two of my favorite sleeper teams. Both very easily in and probably 2 of only 3 Pac schools now. Wazzu is on the wrong side of the bubble, and I have USC as a last three team in but can't see the committee doing it after the NCAA just suspended their coach. Washington won by 17 at home and lost by 1 in Arizona on a wicked blocked shot by Derrick Williams. I think the Huskies are the favorites. I have Arizona as about a 6 seed and Washington as a 9. I don't see that changing much.
MWC - Here we go, BYU and San Diego St one last time... and it doesn't even seem to be on tv. Fantastic. Jimmer scored 52 yesterday. He shot 22 for 37. That's actually even crazier because 22 field goals (including 7 threes) is 51 points, so that means only 1 free throw. That's just a shooting clinic. Player of the year it is, then. He's had some big games against SD St and they'll need him again. I have a 4 seed and 5 seed for these two squads, winner getting the 4. Plenty at stake and lots will be watching if they can find it. I think these teams could still end up 2 and 3 seeds nationally if people have really bought into this. I am drooling over the thought of knocking a 2 seed SDSt out in round two (please God, not in a bracket with #1 Duke. ugh). I do like San Diego St to get this one and get the very high seed.
Big East - Well we've reshuffled the entire Big East deck the last couple days, and player of the year candidate Kemba Walker has come through yet again. I have Pitt and ND at a dead heat at the top. I'll give the edge to ND because they won the regular season matchup at Pitt, so they could get the 1 seed (huge upset alert - get ready to pick someone else for the Final Four). Both deserve 1 seeds but one could get snubbed for Duke. Good chance Duke and one of them are together in one of the brackets. I still have Syracuse as a solid 2 seed, and Louisville is there now as well with 5 wins over the top 4 Big East teams (other than themselves). UConn and St Johns are borderline 3-4 seeds. UConn could secure a 3 with a win tonight but I have to think Louisville's tempo will end this one early. There are still 5 more Big East teams safely in after that but none that I trust much in.
Big 12 - This is the golden egg of the games today with a Kansas and Texas rematch in the final. KU could still be the 1 overall seed and should be a 1 seed either way. Texas could potentially steal a #1 if they sweep the Jayhawks, but they're a pretty 2 seed. Still this is going to have a tourney feel, and both of these teams are top 5-7 contenders to cut down the nets. I like Kansas to win this one, but I hope it's a great game. It should be.
Bubble watch - I have Colorado, Florida St, Michigan, Georgia, Penn St, Richmond, and Va Tech all safely in, though one of those last two gets a play-in game. That leaves 3 spots left for me (really 2 because I know the committee is taking George Mason against all logic. I still think I'd rather take Harvard). I think Alabama is relatively safe. My other two spots are currently USC and Nebraska, with Clemson and Ok St my last two out. Can I say again how unexcited I am to see some combination of Richmond, Alabama, Va Tech, and Clemson playing play-in games on Tuesday? Then again it's better than McNeese St vs Grambling St so I guess I shouldn't complain. But seriously, stop letting these crapfest teams in. The bubble would be perfect with those 3 fewer spots.
Can't wait to see that bracket!! Should still get a great SEC final tomorrow, a fun A10 matchup, and Lord willing, hopefully Duke UNC III. Yes please. =]
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
NCAA rankings - Mar 7 - by seed
This week my top 25 turned into a top 50, which was not fun. Teams 40-50 are pretty dreadful. I do not envy the committee's decision. Btw this was written before the last couple days of ball so I'm going to ignore the last couple days of results for this below. Anyway, here is my top 50 teams in order, but broken down by seed...
#1 seeds (overall #1-#4)
Pittsburgh, Ohio St, Notre Dame, Kansas
And I think the dropoff after these four is huge. Comparing Duke's profile to someone like Pitt or ND is a joke. Duke has four wins over sure tournament teams and their second best win (after UNC) is over Marquette. Both Pitt and ND beat Marquette too, but they each have NINE other more valuable wins. This shouldn't even be a discussion.
#2 seeds (overall #5-#8)
Syracuse, Wisconsin, Purdue, St. John's
I've really come full circle on all of these teams, who I started either down on or ignoring completely a couple months ago. The Cuse is a #1 seed disguised as a 3 or 4 right now due to an awful two week stretch, and these two Big Ten squads will be very tough outs and are very much Final Four threats.
#3 seeds (overall #9-#12)
Duke, Texas, UNC, BYU
And yet some or all four of these teams will end up seeded higher than this. I don't think we can give BYU a top 10 ranking anymore, not as things look right now. If they beat New Mexico and then SDSt or UNLV handily, I will give them a 2. I do think that Duke or UNC can have St. John's spot as a 2 seed if/when they win the ACC tourney. And Texas is a real wildcard, a team that was my #1 overall only a month ago but is fading quickly with now five very average looking losses.
#4 seeds (overall #13-#16)
Cincy, Louisville, Florida, UConn
I believe that 4-13 is the new 5-12 upset in this year's format, and these teams are all ripe for the picking if they were facing some of this year's top mid majors like Belmont or Oakland. Cincy continues to get no national love but their profile is pretty clearly better than Lville and UConn with a trio of solid road wins and all seven losses to worthy top 20 opponents. Florida might deserve better than this and could move up a line if they move as easily through the SEC tourney as they did through the regular season, but for now the early season losses are still an eyesore.
#5 seeds (overall #17-#20)
Kentucky, Georgetown, West Virginia, San Diego St
If BYU is not quite a top 10 team, then SDSt is barely in the top 20. I just don't think we know enough about this team to push them that much higher than other unknown quantities like Utah St or Belmont. Georgetown is fading fast without Chris Wright and could (should) drop some, and I still haven't figured out this UK team but I have a feeling Coach Cal will have his boys ready for an SEC tourney run.
#6 seeds (overall #21-#24)
Kansas St, Villanova, Vanderbilt, UCLA
Nova is another of those Big East teams that is really fading fast. I know these guard-driven teams perform well in tourneys, but there's a reason I wasn't shocked by (and in fact predicted) the USF loss yesterday. KSt is a team no one wants as a 6 or 7 seed in their bracket. They're playing right now like the 2 seed they were last year. And Vandy is always a 6 seed, aren't they?
#7 seeds (overall #25-#28)
Marquette, Arizona, Utah St, Michigan St
Ah yes, four teams that seem to be on the bubble for most but I have safely in and seeded pretty well. Marquette is my 11th Big East team and I don't think there's any question. No other bubble teams can say they've beaten West Va, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and UConn. Heck no one else in the Big East even beat both the Irish and the Orange. Cmon now. I still believe in this Sean Miller Zona team, and like I mentioned above, we don't know enough about this Utah St to know much what to do with them. I don't think Michigan St is a bubble team at all. They're a victim of a killer schedule, that's all. They have only one loss to a team entirely out of the tourney picture, two if you count at Penn St and I don't think you should, and there are four Ws over tourney teams. This is a team that played UConn, Duke, Cuse, and Texas in nonconference. Replace those with the usual nonconference patsies and the Buckeyes are 22-9 and no one thinks twice.
#8 seeds (overall #29-#32)
Belmont, Missouri, UNLV, Texas A&M
Two teams I love and two I hate. I can't wait to see where my Belmont Bruins end up seeded. If they get a 12 or 13 like I hope, they're a likely sweet sixteen squad for me. I think this was a tourney team with or without winning the A-Sun tourney, and I don't think it was close either. What's different than Utah St? They're better, for starters. I also think UNLV is a bit underrated and lost in the MWC shuffle. They could end up the only team vying for a sweet 16 spot. I am not a believer in these two Big 12 squads at all, both of whom have lost to no one special and beaten no one special. Woohoo.
#9 seeds (overall #33-#36)
Illinois, Temple, Tennessee, Georgia
Some similar teams in here. With Georgia and Temple, they just don't have a lot for or against the ol resume to know much about them. Nothing to dislike though, and Georgia is a non-bubble entity for me, very safely in the mix. Illinois will be safely in on the strength of beating a couple teams in Wisky and UNC whose wins look a lot better now than they should when the Illini beat them. And the Vols are one of those oh-no-this-9-seed-could-beat-the-1-seed-woops-they-lost-to-UNLV-first-somehow type teams that I love so very much.
#10 seeds (overall #37-#40)
Xavier, Gonzaga, Florida St, St. Mary's
Again all teams that are very safely in the fold for me. It's telling that FSU is clearly the 3rd ACC team and yet is only my #39 overall... telling in that I think we need to be careful with how we rate UNC and Duke. Then again Duke faced a bad conference last year and if I remember right, they did ok in the tourney. To me Gonzaga and St Mary's are both definite tournament teams. They look the part, they play the part, and St Mary's shouldn't miss from one rough 10 day stretch when they're a tourney team the other 4 months of the season. Xavier is in but will be overseeded.
#11 seeds (overall #41-#44)
Washington, Old Dominion, USC, Colorado
#42 is the cutoff for me, so Washington and ODU are safely in but the rest are bubble teams. Old Dominion is in and safe now anyway. Washington could be in some heat if they lose to Wazzu a third time though. They swept UCLA and beat Arizona but I couldn't tell you what else they've done worth a darn. Actually USC is a team people are finally starting to talk about that I think is on the right side of the bubble. They did as well as anyone in conference play and boast wins over Texas and Tennessee outside of it... but yeah those losses to Rider, Bradley, TCU, and Oregon St are tough to swallow. We've reached the top of the bubble for me, whereby I can overlook a bunch of rough losses if you also scored some big wins. Show me you can dance. Colorado beat Texas and swept K State. I hope you dance.
#12 seeds (overall #45-#50)
Alabama, Nebraska, Richmond, Va Tech, Oklahoma St, Michigan
Bama should be in the tourney on the basis of a strong SEC season including wins over UK, Tennessee, and Georgia... but they couldn't be too upset if they missed either. That this team should maybe get in over an 11th Big East team is pretty silly to me. Just take a look, the Tide lost to Seton Hall and Providence themselves. They would probably have been South Florida if in the Big East. Yikes. Nebraska doesn't even seem to be on folks' bubble radar, nor Okie St. Can't say I'm surprised. Neither has done anything away from home, but both have some solid wins there and only a couple rough losses. I do think Richmond ought to be in. Going 13-3 in the A10 and adding a win over Purdue should leave you pretty safe, hopefully not in one of those play-in games. I think VT is still in by virtue of being the clear #4 ACC team.. but barely. And Michigan quite frankly I hope doesn't make it. It's ironically their wins over two of my favs Oakland and Harvard that boost them to my last spot.
Note some teams who are missing from my list... George Mason and Butler in particular. I just see a bunch of losses to non-tourney teams and only one win over a sure tourney team between the two of them. Yeah Butler is safely in now on the auto-bid, but I don't think either of these teams is an at large profile even at all. Butler better not get like a 6 or 7 seed. I think both of these teams might.
This first four thing COULD be really cool. Let's say Harvard falls to Princeton. I have them as just barely on the wrong side of the bubble... but can you imagine a game of say Harvard vs USC for one 12 seed spot? Sign me up for that. Or how about George Mason and Alabama? I can get interested in that. But instead I know we're going to get some craptastic matchup like Colorado-Michigan that I wouldn't watch if it were the only game on the air. Who really cares which of those teams win? I sure don't.
#1 seeds (overall #1-#4)
Pittsburgh, Ohio St, Notre Dame, Kansas
And I think the dropoff after these four is huge. Comparing Duke's profile to someone like Pitt or ND is a joke. Duke has four wins over sure tournament teams and their second best win (after UNC) is over Marquette. Both Pitt and ND beat Marquette too, but they each have NINE other more valuable wins. This shouldn't even be a discussion.
#2 seeds (overall #5-#8)
Syracuse, Wisconsin, Purdue, St. John's
I've really come full circle on all of these teams, who I started either down on or ignoring completely a couple months ago. The Cuse is a #1 seed disguised as a 3 or 4 right now due to an awful two week stretch, and these two Big Ten squads will be very tough outs and are very much Final Four threats.
#3 seeds (overall #9-#12)
Duke, Texas, UNC, BYU
And yet some or all four of these teams will end up seeded higher than this. I don't think we can give BYU a top 10 ranking anymore, not as things look right now. If they beat New Mexico and then SDSt or UNLV handily, I will give them a 2. I do think that Duke or UNC can have St. John's spot as a 2 seed if/when they win the ACC tourney. And Texas is a real wildcard, a team that was my #1 overall only a month ago but is fading quickly with now five very average looking losses.
#4 seeds (overall #13-#16)
Cincy, Louisville, Florida, UConn
I believe that 4-13 is the new 5-12 upset in this year's format, and these teams are all ripe for the picking if they were facing some of this year's top mid majors like Belmont or Oakland. Cincy continues to get no national love but their profile is pretty clearly better than Lville and UConn with a trio of solid road wins and all seven losses to worthy top 20 opponents. Florida might deserve better than this and could move up a line if they move as easily through the SEC tourney as they did through the regular season, but for now the early season losses are still an eyesore.
#5 seeds (overall #17-#20)
Kentucky, Georgetown, West Virginia, San Diego St
If BYU is not quite a top 10 team, then SDSt is barely in the top 20. I just don't think we know enough about this team to push them that much higher than other unknown quantities like Utah St or Belmont. Georgetown is fading fast without Chris Wright and could (should) drop some, and I still haven't figured out this UK team but I have a feeling Coach Cal will have his boys ready for an SEC tourney run.
#6 seeds (overall #21-#24)
Kansas St, Villanova, Vanderbilt, UCLA
Nova is another of those Big East teams that is really fading fast. I know these guard-driven teams perform well in tourneys, but there's a reason I wasn't shocked by (and in fact predicted) the USF loss yesterday. KSt is a team no one wants as a 6 or 7 seed in their bracket. They're playing right now like the 2 seed they were last year. And Vandy is always a 6 seed, aren't they?
#7 seeds (overall #25-#28)
Marquette, Arizona, Utah St, Michigan St
Ah yes, four teams that seem to be on the bubble for most but I have safely in and seeded pretty well. Marquette is my 11th Big East team and I don't think there's any question. No other bubble teams can say they've beaten West Va, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and UConn. Heck no one else in the Big East even beat both the Irish and the Orange. Cmon now. I still believe in this Sean Miller Zona team, and like I mentioned above, we don't know enough about this Utah St to know much what to do with them. I don't think Michigan St is a bubble team at all. They're a victim of a killer schedule, that's all. They have only one loss to a team entirely out of the tourney picture, two if you count at Penn St and I don't think you should, and there are four Ws over tourney teams. This is a team that played UConn, Duke, Cuse, and Texas in nonconference. Replace those with the usual nonconference patsies and the Buckeyes are 22-9 and no one thinks twice.
#8 seeds (overall #29-#32)
Belmont, Missouri, UNLV, Texas A&M
Two teams I love and two I hate. I can't wait to see where my Belmont Bruins end up seeded. If they get a 12 or 13 like I hope, they're a likely sweet sixteen squad for me. I think this was a tourney team with or without winning the A-Sun tourney, and I don't think it was close either. What's different than Utah St? They're better, for starters. I also think UNLV is a bit underrated and lost in the MWC shuffle. They could end up the only team vying for a sweet 16 spot. I am not a believer in these two Big 12 squads at all, both of whom have lost to no one special and beaten no one special. Woohoo.
#9 seeds (overall #33-#36)
Illinois, Temple, Tennessee, Georgia
Some similar teams in here. With Georgia and Temple, they just don't have a lot for or against the ol resume to know much about them. Nothing to dislike though, and Georgia is a non-bubble entity for me, very safely in the mix. Illinois will be safely in on the strength of beating a couple teams in Wisky and UNC whose wins look a lot better now than they should when the Illini beat them. And the Vols are one of those oh-no-this-9-seed-could-beat-the-1-seed-woops-they-lost-to-UNLV-first-somehow type teams that I love so very much.
#10 seeds (overall #37-#40)
Xavier, Gonzaga, Florida St, St. Mary's
Again all teams that are very safely in the fold for me. It's telling that FSU is clearly the 3rd ACC team and yet is only my #39 overall... telling in that I think we need to be careful with how we rate UNC and Duke. Then again Duke faced a bad conference last year and if I remember right, they did ok in the tourney. To me Gonzaga and St Mary's are both definite tournament teams. They look the part, they play the part, and St Mary's shouldn't miss from one rough 10 day stretch when they're a tourney team the other 4 months of the season. Xavier is in but will be overseeded.
#11 seeds (overall #41-#44)
Washington, Old Dominion, USC, Colorado
#42 is the cutoff for me, so Washington and ODU are safely in but the rest are bubble teams. Old Dominion is in and safe now anyway. Washington could be in some heat if they lose to Wazzu a third time though. They swept UCLA and beat Arizona but I couldn't tell you what else they've done worth a darn. Actually USC is a team people are finally starting to talk about that I think is on the right side of the bubble. They did as well as anyone in conference play and boast wins over Texas and Tennessee outside of it... but yeah those losses to Rider, Bradley, TCU, and Oregon St are tough to swallow. We've reached the top of the bubble for me, whereby I can overlook a bunch of rough losses if you also scored some big wins. Show me you can dance. Colorado beat Texas and swept K State. I hope you dance.
#12 seeds (overall #45-#50)
Alabama, Nebraska, Richmond, Va Tech, Oklahoma St, Michigan
Bama should be in the tourney on the basis of a strong SEC season including wins over UK, Tennessee, and Georgia... but they couldn't be too upset if they missed either. That this team should maybe get in over an 11th Big East team is pretty silly to me. Just take a look, the Tide lost to Seton Hall and Providence themselves. They would probably have been South Florida if in the Big East. Yikes. Nebraska doesn't even seem to be on folks' bubble radar, nor Okie St. Can't say I'm surprised. Neither has done anything away from home, but both have some solid wins there and only a couple rough losses. I do think Richmond ought to be in. Going 13-3 in the A10 and adding a win over Purdue should leave you pretty safe, hopefully not in one of those play-in games. I think VT is still in by virtue of being the clear #4 ACC team.. but barely. And Michigan quite frankly I hope doesn't make it. It's ironically their wins over two of my favs Oakland and Harvard that boost them to my last spot.
Note some teams who are missing from my list... George Mason and Butler in particular. I just see a bunch of losses to non-tourney teams and only one win over a sure tourney team between the two of them. Yeah Butler is safely in now on the auto-bid, but I don't think either of these teams is an at large profile even at all. Butler better not get like a 6 or 7 seed. I think both of these teams might.
This first four thing COULD be really cool. Let's say Harvard falls to Princeton. I have them as just barely on the wrong side of the bubble... but can you imagine a game of say Harvard vs USC for one 12 seed spot? Sign me up for that. Or how about George Mason and Alabama? I can get interested in that. But instead I know we're going to get some craptastic matchup like Colorado-Michigan that I wouldn't watch if it were the only game on the air. Who really cares which of those teams win? I sure don't.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Some championship week predictions
I have my top 25 for this week done from a day ago, pending when I get some time to post it. It's actually a top 50, aka a Bubble breakdown too, so hopefully soon. In the mean time, let's talk about some conference tournament predictions. Loves me some brackets. First, some winners in those future 15-16 seed conferences. Of the teams below, I love Oakland to make some noise and I could see the BSky winner doing something, otherwise nothin to see here...
Boston U (AMEC), Montana (BSky), Long Beach (BWest), Miami (MAC), Bethune (MEAC), Long Island (NEC), Bucknell (Patriot), Sam Houston (Southland), Oakland (Summit), N Texas (S Belt), Tex Southern (SWAC)
WAC - Utah St easily and then an overseed and another early out
Horizon - Butler, though I really want Milwaukee to win and then Butler to miss the tourney because I just dont see why they are an at large lock. Oakland has a better profile.
CUSA - UTEP over UAB. Single bid league this year, Memphis sucks now.
Ivy - Harvard. Princeton loses today @Penn. I'd really would love a sudden death game but I'll take Harvard any way I can get em.
A10 - Temple over Duquesne... Xavier still in safely, Richmond in but a play-in game
And the big ones...
M West - UNLV over New Mexico. Going off the board on this one. I think BYU drops to the NMex/ColSt winner and I really think UNLV is an underrated squad plus they get the home tourney. BYU drops to a questionable 4 seed, Col St falls off the bubble, and NMex makes a late push to grab a spot but comes up short.
Pac 10 - USC over UCLA. I really like USC a lot. Wish they were getting some more bubble love but even getting to the final probably wouldn't be enough. I like them to finish the job. I do think Washington beats Wazzu to solidify its bid, and I still like Arizona, just not in this tourney. Pac10 a little underrated. I'd actually like all 4 teams coming out in this scenario (Wazzu out).
Big 10 - Ohio St over Wisconsin, but in a much better game than Sunday. Let's just say the Buckeyes won't shoot 14 for 15 from the arc again. Still Ohio St is a near lock here for me. I think both Michigan and Michigan St lose early and leave themselves firmly on the bubble... and I think Izzo's boys still get in over Michigan despite being swept by the Wolverines. Panic everywhere, right up until Sparty wins yet another tourney game in an upset.
SEC - Kentucky over Georgia, Tennessee over Vandy, and UK wins in a great final. I have no idea though honestly. I could see Georgia making a run in Atlanta. I could see Tennessee making a big run or losing their first game. Vandy loses to Florida or Tennessee. I don't like Florida to win this, and I do think UK is underrated and Coach Cal loves winning conference tourneys.
ACC - UNC over Boston College, Duke over Florida St, Duke over UNC. I went into this thinking no way I'd set up the dream matchup of Duke-UNC III but I just don't see how it can be anything else because the ACC is so bad this year. I might pick FSU to beat UNC if they were on the other side of the bracket, but the Heels aren't losing to BC or Clemson and Duke just flat out isn't losing the ACC tournament. They pull away in the final and win with ease to lock up the last 1 seed.
Big 12 - KU over Colorado, Baylor over Mizzou, Kansas survives Baylor in the final. This is a conference I had no idea what to do with. So many talented but up and down teams. I like K St a lot, loved Texas a month ago, and hate both Mizzou and A&M. And I still don't know what I'll do with Kansas, who by all means should be a near Final Four lock but just never seems to do the job when it matters.
Big 12 - Ahh the big one. Let's get a real breakdown here...
Notre Dame gets the easiest semi final path with an easy one over Cincy, who beats USF after a surprise early Nova exit. Huggy Bear gets his boys up for another tourney run with a big win over Marquette and then a Louisville take down, but the Irish survive West Va and get to the final.
The other half of the bracket is much more loaded and intriguing to me. That St Johns and Syracuse matchup could be a real classic... but I fear with the pressure suddenly on St John's it may not happen, and I think they may have peaked about a month too early. I like the Orange. UConn has the most brutal path of anyone. Do we realize for them to win this, they'd have to beat DePaul, Gtown, Pitt, Cuse/StJn, and then ND/Lville on five consecutive days? Yeah, good luck with that....... except I think they get real close. I like UConn to barely get by DePaul before stomping Gtown and then outlasting Pitt in a thriller. But I like Syracuse in this half of the bracket and overall. I'll take Syracuse over Notre Dame in a final that boosts Cuse to a 2 seed and Notre Dame to a 1 taking Pittsburgh's spot.
We do realize that just on Thursday, we could see the following Big East games: Pitt-UConn at noon followed by St Johns-Cuse, then a nightcap of Notre Dame-Cincy and Louisville-West Va. We realize that, right? Holy cow. Let's get the party started.
Boston U (AMEC), Montana (BSky), Long Beach (BWest), Miami (MAC), Bethune (MEAC), Long Island (NEC), Bucknell (Patriot), Sam Houston (Southland), Oakland (Summit), N Texas (S Belt), Tex Southern (SWAC)
WAC - Utah St easily and then an overseed and another early out
Horizon - Butler, though I really want Milwaukee to win and then Butler to miss the tourney because I just dont see why they are an at large lock. Oakland has a better profile.
CUSA - UTEP over UAB. Single bid league this year, Memphis sucks now.
Ivy - Harvard. Princeton loses today @Penn. I'd really would love a sudden death game but I'll take Harvard any way I can get em.
A10 - Temple over Duquesne... Xavier still in safely, Richmond in but a play-in game
And the big ones...
M West - UNLV over New Mexico. Going off the board on this one. I think BYU drops to the NMex/ColSt winner and I really think UNLV is an underrated squad plus they get the home tourney. BYU drops to a questionable 4 seed, Col St falls off the bubble, and NMex makes a late push to grab a spot but comes up short.
Pac 10 - USC over UCLA. I really like USC a lot. Wish they were getting some more bubble love but even getting to the final probably wouldn't be enough. I like them to finish the job. I do think Washington beats Wazzu to solidify its bid, and I still like Arizona, just not in this tourney. Pac10 a little underrated. I'd actually like all 4 teams coming out in this scenario (Wazzu out).
Big 10 - Ohio St over Wisconsin, but in a much better game than Sunday. Let's just say the Buckeyes won't shoot 14 for 15 from the arc again. Still Ohio St is a near lock here for me. I think both Michigan and Michigan St lose early and leave themselves firmly on the bubble... and I think Izzo's boys still get in over Michigan despite being swept by the Wolverines. Panic everywhere, right up until Sparty wins yet another tourney game in an upset.
SEC - Kentucky over Georgia, Tennessee over Vandy, and UK wins in a great final. I have no idea though honestly. I could see Georgia making a run in Atlanta. I could see Tennessee making a big run or losing their first game. Vandy loses to Florida or Tennessee. I don't like Florida to win this, and I do think UK is underrated and Coach Cal loves winning conference tourneys.
ACC - UNC over Boston College, Duke over Florida St, Duke over UNC. I went into this thinking no way I'd set up the dream matchup of Duke-UNC III but I just don't see how it can be anything else because the ACC is so bad this year. I might pick FSU to beat UNC if they were on the other side of the bracket, but the Heels aren't losing to BC or Clemson and Duke just flat out isn't losing the ACC tournament. They pull away in the final and win with ease to lock up the last 1 seed.
Big 12 - KU over Colorado, Baylor over Mizzou, Kansas survives Baylor in the final. This is a conference I had no idea what to do with. So many talented but up and down teams. I like K St a lot, loved Texas a month ago, and hate both Mizzou and A&M. And I still don't know what I'll do with Kansas, who by all means should be a near Final Four lock but just never seems to do the job when it matters.
Big 12 - Ahh the big one. Let's get a real breakdown here...
Notre Dame gets the easiest semi final path with an easy one over Cincy, who beats USF after a surprise early Nova exit. Huggy Bear gets his boys up for another tourney run with a big win over Marquette and then a Louisville take down, but the Irish survive West Va and get to the final.
The other half of the bracket is much more loaded and intriguing to me. That St Johns and Syracuse matchup could be a real classic... but I fear with the pressure suddenly on St John's it may not happen, and I think they may have peaked about a month too early. I like the Orange. UConn has the most brutal path of anyone. Do we realize for them to win this, they'd have to beat DePaul, Gtown, Pitt, Cuse/StJn, and then ND/Lville on five consecutive days? Yeah, good luck with that....... except I think they get real close. I like UConn to barely get by DePaul before stomping Gtown and then outlasting Pitt in a thriller. But I like Syracuse in this half of the bracket and overall. I'll take Syracuse over Notre Dame in a final that boosts Cuse to a 2 seed and Notre Dame to a 1 taking Pittsburgh's spot.
We do realize that just on Thursday, we could see the following Big East games: Pitt-UConn at noon followed by St Johns-Cuse, then a nightcap of Notre Dame-Cincy and Louisville-West Va. We realize that, right? Holy cow. Let's get the party started.
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Brandon Davies
As a former student of a conservative school with a strict behavioral code, I know what it's like to have to live by super strict rules. The reason I am going to have to side with the school's decision to kick him off the team is this: he KNEW the rules when he enrolled in the school. If you can't play by the rules, you probably should choose another school. I have to give a major Bravo to BYU for kicking off an important player in their run for a Final Four appearance. That couldn't have been easy to do, but they did it, and sticking by the decision. With the amount of money that's potentially at stake with a deep tournament run, they are sticking to their guns. Can't fault them for that, and I have to say, the people attacking BYU are morons. Say what you want, the rules were CLEARLY stated when Davies enrolled. Blame the kid who made a mistake, blame the kid who broke the rules. He knew the potential consequences of his actions, and he did it anyways. He is the only one at fault, and any backlash anywhere else is midguided and wrong.
On a side note: whoever found out about this and told authorities, they are probably trying to keep their identity secret, because they are probably going to get beat up big time. Seriously, your team is #3 in the nation, and an important player just got kicked off the team cuz you tattled on him. I wouldn't want to be that person...just sayin...
On a side note: whoever found out about this and told authorities, they are probably trying to keep their identity secret, because they are probably going to get beat up big time. Seriously, your team is #3 in the nation, and an important player just got kicked off the team cuz you tattled on him. I wouldn't want to be that person...just sayin...
Monday, February 28, 2011
NCAA rankings - Feb 28
Only one week left in the regular season... some conference tournaments starting already tomorrow... and the tournament selection show is already all set up in my DVR. March is here!!!
1. Pittsburgh (1) - I remain unwavering in my commitment to Pitt, and an overtime loss in Lville isn't going to change that too much, if anything help it.
2. Ohio St (2) - Still two very valid losses, but other than the win against Purdue and at Florida, there still isn't a whole lot else there. Chance to beat Wisconsin this week and nail down a 1 seed even if they lose in the B10 tourney.
3. Kansas (3) - Like OSU, not a ton on the resume still but just continuing to roll in a strong conference.
4. BYU (5) - This is looking like a pretty strong top 4 right now to me, and it's looking more and more realistic that BYU could be a likely 1 seed out West where you have to think they'd be hard to beat. Every bit of a 1 seed that Memphis was a few years ago.
5. Notre Dame (9) - Never too excited to rank the Irish this high. No bad losses but only one even sort of good road win (though the best - at Pitt) makes me pretty leery of this team.
6. Syracuse (15) - I've come full circle on this squad apparently. What I really like is the fact that home-away doesnt seem to matter a whole lot. You dont want to lose at home, but I get excited about four road victories at St Johns, UConn, Nova, and Gtown for sure.
7. Purdue (13) - Another team I've really come around on. Purdue is winning and winning big. Only one questionable loss and a lot of good really solid wins, though not much on the road.
8. St. John's (10) - There are 8 losses including those two awful ones early on. But there are also an astonishing 9 wins against teams solidly in my top 22, including three on the road which is the usual knock on this team. No one wants to play them right now, and the bad early losses could keep the seed down and sleeper status alive. Unless of course they use that great home court advantage and win the Big East tourney...
9. Duke (7) - Come to think of it, the resume isn't much different from my #2 or #3 team, they just don't pass the eye test as well. They're not winning big and they haven't beat a top 20 team yet. Show me what you can do at UNC Saturday and you'll have my respect. Very shoddy 1 seed candidacy unless they beat UNC two more times and look convincing.
10. Texas (5) - I smelled the dropoff coming. You can smell the Rick Barnes stinkbomb coming a mile away. Still the best road win in the country but you really have to worry about a team that talented losing to three very mediocre teams like USC, Nebraska, and Colorado.
11. Wisconsin (14) - They were ridiculous for a half against Ohio St. Let's see if they can take the show on the road this week.
12. Lousiville (17) - Really this team isn't a whole lot different from Notre Dame, until you factor in the losses to Providence and Drexel. I'm starting to see the talent there but I still worry when a team is THAT much better at home.
13. UConn (12) - Big win in Cincy especially without Kemba starring, but I still don't see a lot else there.
14. San Diego St (6) - I'm really not on board with this squad as a star contender. They should be something like a 4 or 5 seed I think. But they still have a chance to add a 3rd victory over UNLV basically on the road plus finally a win against BYU.
15. Georgetown (11) - The injury to Chris Wright is an absolute killer. The news about his injury and how long it may take mean everything to the Hoyas.
16. Cincinnati (19) - Still not sure how the Bearcats are a bubble team. They've only lost to top 20 teams, and they have three wins over top 20 squads too. Great chance to sweep Gtown this week.
17. West Virginia (20) - Still not in love with the questionable early losses to teams like Miami and Marshall, but there are five really good wins against top 25 teams as well including a pair of Notre Dame and Purdue.
18. Villanova (16) - Another Big East team that has a lot of big home wins, but a lot of home losses too. Underwhelming resume but always a good tourney team with all those guards.
19. UCLA (25) - The Bruins get my top Pac 10 spot this week after just destroying Arizona. They add that to wins over BYU and St. John's... but also confusing losses to VCU, USC, Cal, and inexplicably to Montana. Does the Pac 10 just totally suck this year?
20. Florida (18)
21. Kentucky (23) - Still not sure what to do with the SEC either. Obviously.
22. Marquette (21) - Still losing a bunch of good losable games, and they finally finished off that marquee victory at UConn this week and make it look like a real 11 Big East teams in the tourney this year.
23. Arizona (8) - Wow. What an absolutely awfully terribly disappointing week. I was ready to pick this team as a sleeper Final Four squad too. Yikes.
24. Vanderbilt (24) - Blah.
25. UNC (22) - I like this team a lot more than 25th best, but the resume doesn't show it yet. Definite Final Four potential there if they play up to it. Let's see them do it against Duke this week first.
Weird, no one dropped out of my top 25 this week. Very odd. I think Kansas St was my closest addition, which is also very odd. Big games this week...
M - KSt @ 10 Tex, 18 Nova @ 5 ND
T - 24 Van @ 21 UK
W - 12 UConn @ 17 WVa, 25 UNC @ FSU, 16 Cin @ 22 Marq
R - 19 UCLA @ Wash
S - 9 Duke @ 25 UNC, 2 KU @ Mizz, 10 Tex @ Bay, 19 Nova @ 1 Pitt, 5 ND @ 12 UConn, 15 Gtown @ 16 Cin, 20 Fla @ 24 Van, 11 Lville @ 17 WVa
S - 11 Wisc @ 3 OhSt, 21 UK @ Tenn
We also have our first bids ready to go out this week. I like Coastal Carolina in a big way out of the Big South. I think it will come down to an exciting one game playoff between Harvard and Princeton in the Ivy. And I'm excited for the Horizon tourney. I'll go with Butler over Milwaukee in the final.
1. Pittsburgh (1) - I remain unwavering in my commitment to Pitt, and an overtime loss in Lville isn't going to change that too much, if anything help it.
2. Ohio St (2) - Still two very valid losses, but other than the win against Purdue and at Florida, there still isn't a whole lot else there. Chance to beat Wisconsin this week and nail down a 1 seed even if they lose in the B10 tourney.
3. Kansas (3) - Like OSU, not a ton on the resume still but just continuing to roll in a strong conference.
4. BYU (5) - This is looking like a pretty strong top 4 right now to me, and it's looking more and more realistic that BYU could be a likely 1 seed out West where you have to think they'd be hard to beat. Every bit of a 1 seed that Memphis was a few years ago.
5. Notre Dame (9) - Never too excited to rank the Irish this high. No bad losses but only one even sort of good road win (though the best - at Pitt) makes me pretty leery of this team.
6. Syracuse (15) - I've come full circle on this squad apparently. What I really like is the fact that home-away doesnt seem to matter a whole lot. You dont want to lose at home, but I get excited about four road victories at St Johns, UConn, Nova, and Gtown for sure.
7. Purdue (13) - Another team I've really come around on. Purdue is winning and winning big. Only one questionable loss and a lot of good really solid wins, though not much on the road.
8. St. John's (10) - There are 8 losses including those two awful ones early on. But there are also an astonishing 9 wins against teams solidly in my top 22, including three on the road which is the usual knock on this team. No one wants to play them right now, and the bad early losses could keep the seed down and sleeper status alive. Unless of course they use that great home court advantage and win the Big East tourney...
9. Duke (7) - Come to think of it, the resume isn't much different from my #2 or #3 team, they just don't pass the eye test as well. They're not winning big and they haven't beat a top 20 team yet. Show me what you can do at UNC Saturday and you'll have my respect. Very shoddy 1 seed candidacy unless they beat UNC two more times and look convincing.
10. Texas (5) - I smelled the dropoff coming. You can smell the Rick Barnes stinkbomb coming a mile away. Still the best road win in the country but you really have to worry about a team that talented losing to three very mediocre teams like USC, Nebraska, and Colorado.
11. Wisconsin (14) - They were ridiculous for a half against Ohio St. Let's see if they can take the show on the road this week.
12. Lousiville (17) - Really this team isn't a whole lot different from Notre Dame, until you factor in the losses to Providence and Drexel. I'm starting to see the talent there but I still worry when a team is THAT much better at home.
13. UConn (12) - Big win in Cincy especially without Kemba starring, but I still don't see a lot else there.
14. San Diego St (6) - I'm really not on board with this squad as a star contender. They should be something like a 4 or 5 seed I think. But they still have a chance to add a 3rd victory over UNLV basically on the road plus finally a win against BYU.
15. Georgetown (11) - The injury to Chris Wright is an absolute killer. The news about his injury and how long it may take mean everything to the Hoyas.
16. Cincinnati (19) - Still not sure how the Bearcats are a bubble team. They've only lost to top 20 teams, and they have three wins over top 20 squads too. Great chance to sweep Gtown this week.
17. West Virginia (20) - Still not in love with the questionable early losses to teams like Miami and Marshall, but there are five really good wins against top 25 teams as well including a pair of Notre Dame and Purdue.
18. Villanova (16) - Another Big East team that has a lot of big home wins, but a lot of home losses too. Underwhelming resume but always a good tourney team with all those guards.
19. UCLA (25) - The Bruins get my top Pac 10 spot this week after just destroying Arizona. They add that to wins over BYU and St. John's... but also confusing losses to VCU, USC, Cal, and inexplicably to Montana. Does the Pac 10 just totally suck this year?
20. Florida (18)
21. Kentucky (23) - Still not sure what to do with the SEC either. Obviously.
22. Marquette (21) - Still losing a bunch of good losable games, and they finally finished off that marquee victory at UConn this week and make it look like a real 11 Big East teams in the tourney this year.
23. Arizona (8) - Wow. What an absolutely awfully terribly disappointing week. I was ready to pick this team as a sleeper Final Four squad too. Yikes.
24. Vanderbilt (24) - Blah.
25. UNC (22) - I like this team a lot more than 25th best, but the resume doesn't show it yet. Definite Final Four potential there if they play up to it. Let's see them do it against Duke this week first.
Weird, no one dropped out of my top 25 this week. Very odd. I think Kansas St was my closest addition, which is also very odd. Big games this week...
M - KSt @ 10 Tex, 18 Nova @ 5 ND
T - 24 Van @ 21 UK
W - 12 UConn @ 17 WVa, 25 UNC @ FSU, 16 Cin @ 22 Marq
R - 19 UCLA @ Wash
S - 9 Duke @ 25 UNC, 2 KU @ Mizz, 10 Tex @ Bay, 19 Nova @ 1 Pitt, 5 ND @ 12 UConn, 15 Gtown @ 16 Cin, 20 Fla @ 24 Van, 11 Lville @ 17 WVa
S - 11 Wisc @ 3 OhSt, 21 UK @ Tenn
We also have our first bids ready to go out this week. I like Coastal Carolina in a big way out of the Big South. I think it will come down to an exciting one game playoff between Harvard and Princeton in the Ivy. And I'm excited for the Horizon tourney. I'll go with Butler over Milwaukee in the final.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)