Monday, January 31, 2011

NCAA rankings 1-31

It was a bloodbath in the top 25 this week. Five of my top six teams took a loss, and the Big East was a mess this week. But note a few big wins by teams I called underrated last week, and a couple losses from teams I questioned as overrated too. Let's get to the rankings including a new #1...

1. Texas (3) - Starting to get noticed nationally after 3 of their last 4 games were big wins over top 25 squads, but one big road test remains this Wednesday at A&M, who they beat by 21 two weeks ago. Win that one and they might not lose again til tourney time.
2. Pitt (1) - My top team from a week ago took a surprising home loss to the Irish but there was enough of a mess at the top to not fall too far. Might be in it for the long haul with wins over UConn, Cuse, and Gtown and no return trips coming.
3. UConn (2) - Like Pitt, took a surprising home loss to Louisville this week. Like Pitt, too much turmoil to fall too far.
4. Ohio St (9) - Still a rather uninspiring slate of wins, but the only team left without a loss and looking pretty dominant in wins, no matter who they're facing.
5. Kansas (7) - Moved them up on the basis of the Big 12 ranking, even if they don't have a win over a sure tournament yet. But the only loss is to Texas and they only have 2 losable games left on the schedule. Looks like a #1 seed, like it or not.

6. Notre Dame (11) - I noted last week that the Irish were piling up an impressive slate of wins but needed that big road win to put a stamp on the season. How does @Pitt sound? Add that to UConn, Gtown, Marq, Wisc, and more.
7. Georgetown (17) - They've rebounded nicely after a rough Big East start and now added a big win at Villanova. This team is one to watch in March - they've got some really nice road wins, nice enough to offset 5 losses, all to top 25 teams.
8. San Diego St (8) - Yeah, they lost. But on the road to BYU in a tight game - that's a good loss. That's probably a better loss than an undefeated season, character building.
9. BYU (9) - The win over SDSt was more than offset by an awful follow up loss at New Mexico that should cool down the national Jimmer love for awhile.
10. Kentucky (12) - So young and inconsistent, and these next two weeks will be telling with road trips to Miss, Fla, and Vandy. Still need to put things together for 40 minutes.

11. Villanova (4) - That win at Syracuse seems long ago and pretty watered down at this point, and the loss at Providence this week puts a real damper on the season. Good chance for a rebound week with home games against Marq and WVa.
12. Duke (6) - That was not pretty yesterday. And neither is this overall resume. Duke does not even have a victory yet over a surefire tournament team, and they're not looking fantastic in wins either. Even worse, the best road win is at NC St. Up next at Maryland this week, where they always have trouble.
13. Texas A&M (13) - This is a team that is great at home, has done nothing on the road, and in need of a marquee win for the resume. Enter new #1 Texas.
14. Tennessee (16) - Easy week here but gearing up for make or break games at Kentucky and Florida next week. Season saver or ruiner.
15. Marquette (NR) - I told you it would be a big week. This team is underrated nationally still even after the Syracuse win, but they're going to have to prove it - on the road. They travel to Nova and Gtown in the next two weeks, with at UConn on tap too. Every other game is an easy one but they're going to have to win those and get another one or two of those big road games to go dancing.

16. Washington (15)
17. Syracuse (5) - Quite a tumble, but I'm no longer a believer until proven otherwise. They need to right the ship in a hurry - at UConn on Wednesday. Yikes.
18. Missouri (18)
19. Arizona (NR) - Very close to becoming the team to beat in the Pac 10, but hard to know if that means very much this year. Still, only one even sort of bad loss plus three that most teams would've lost (@BYU, @Wash, vs KU). Only problem is they haven't beaten anyone yet and won't get a chance to in this conference.
20. Louisville (NR) - Time to show a little respect after a wins over WVa and at UConn and the second best Big East record, but I'm not convinced. The three best wins are by just 1 point. Due for a letdown.

21. Purdue (22)
22. St. John's (NR) - Ok, crushing Duke win. Just another huge win for the Big East. Don't look now but Steve Lavin's team now has wins over Duke, ND, and Gtown, but still no margin for error.
23. West Va (21)
24. Temple (NR) - My top team in the A10, though they haven't notched any big conference wins yet. The one over Gtown should hold up pretty well.
25. Cincy (19) - Yup... that's 11 Big East teams in my top 25.

Don't let the door hit you on your way out - Mich St (14), Florida (20), Wisc (23), Fla St (24), Vandy (25)

Big games this week...
M - 1 Texas @ 13 A&M, 20 Louisville @ 7 Georgetown
T - Vandy @ Florida, Purdue @ Wisconsin
W - 17 Cuse @ 3 UConn, 15 Marquette @ 11 Nova, 12 Duke @ Maryland
S - 25 Cincy @ 2 Pitt, 23 West Va @ 11 Nova, 10 UK @ Florida

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

College hoops: Conference rankings & mid-majors

Let's go through the major conferences and share my opinion on them as a whole, then point out a few teams that I like as potential March Cinderellas. Off we go...

Atlantic 10 - Very solid overall. Temple and Xavier are a great 1-2 punch, and Richmond has a couple rough losses but a good profile too. Between those three they've got wins over Georgetown, Purdue, and Butler. Here's guessing at least one sweet 16 team rises again.

ACC - I am astonished at how poor the ACC grades out overall. Collectively as an entire conference, the best road win by *any* ACC team is probably either Maryland @ Penn St or Clemson @ College of Charleston. Go ahead and read that again. Duke has a solid slate and FSU holds up nicely, but these teams have done very little after that. They were dominated in the Big 10 Challenge by a conference I already think is overrated. So... yikes. I'm really not sure who is going dancing past Duke. Probably FSU and UNC but anyone else? I repeat... yikes.

Big 12 - Very impressive overall. There are no real monster wins and the only noteworthy road win is Texas @ Mich St. Still the top 5 teams (clearly Texas, KU, A&M, Mizzou, K St) all have 2-3 good solid nonconference wins and not really any terrible or egregious losses. Looking like one of the stronger conferences overall and potentially two #1 seeds. It's also a deeper conference than usual where even teams like Colorado and Nebraska can beat anyone any given night.

Big East - The SEC of college hoops. I count as many as 11 possible March squads, and a couple of the teams that could miss (Marquette, St Johns) would probably be top 3-4 squads in the ACC. Big East has the only two wins over Texas, including one on the road, and a road win in Mizzou too. Add in a couple wins over Mich St, UK, Wisc, and then just the cannibalization of each other and the Big East will reign again. Easy #1 conference. Probably the #2 conference too.

Big 10 - Upon second glance, not as bad as I first thought. There aren't any great standout wins... the best is probably Mich St over Washington. But there are road wins in Florida, Florida St, Marquette, and Gonzaga, and they dominated the ACC this year. Still, you get a few teams at the bottom who just lose to everyone, and in the rest of the games, it's always home team wins. It's hard to gather much info from that. Can Ohio State really be a #1 seed if they finish the year without a win against a top 15 squad?

Mountain West - Strong and top heavy, but overrated still. There's no reason San Diego St should be #4 in the nation right now, undefeated or not. Still SD St and BYU have some very strong profiles against all of the other top mid majors. They have the only two wins over Utah St and 2 of the only 3 wins over St Marys, plus Gonzaga, Wichita, and Arizona. For mid majors, very nice. But still mid majors. The projections of a #2 seed are not happening. On Selection Sunday these teams will be 5 and 6 seeds, probably facing other mid major sleepers, and everyone will be outraged. Yet again.

Pac 10 - Somehow it's USC that has the biggest nonconference wins - both of them - over Texas and at Tennessee, while also piling up gross losses to Rider, Bradley, TCU, and Oregon St that will doom them on Selection Sunday. UCLA does have the only victory over BYU so far, and Wazzu took down Gonzaga and Baylor, but there's not a whole lot going on. It's going to be hard for these teams to build March profiles when all that's left is beating up on each other and a bunch of top-50-but-not-much-better squads.

SEC - The SEC is really quite underrated. Tennessee has the best pair of wins in the nation with Pitt and Nova victories. Kentucky has a noble trio of N Dame, Washington, and @ Louisville. Add in Florida and Vandy's victories over St Marys, K St, @ Xavier and Florida St, and a bunch of solid mid major work too and you have a very strong top four. Everyone is talking down the SEC this year. The West? Gross. But the East is going to do some real damage.

Conference rankings:
1. Big East
2. Big 12
3. SEC (wow, believe it baby)
4. Big 10
5. Mountain West
6. ACC
7. Atlantic 10
8. Pac 10

Ten sleeper teams to keep an eye on...
10. Montana - They beat UCLA, who beat BYU. But mostly I wanted to have 10 teams.
9. Gonzaga - Some nice wins like usual but nothing over a sure tourney team and already a few conference losses. Not even a tournament lock, and the idea that this was a preseason Final Four squad seems ludicrous.
8. Utah St - We've seen this before. They're cruising but the only two games against tourney teams were ugly losses in BYU and Gtown. Not good enough to compete with the big boys.
7. Butler - Like Gonzaga, only home wins and no huge ones, and starting to get enough conference losses to possibly miss all together.
6. Wichita - There's always someone in MVC that makes noise, and this team looks best to me. They've lost close ones to UConn and SD St, just haven't beat much yet.
5. Old Dominion - I actually like the resume a lot, just concerned they could miss out with some CAA losses. But they've swept the top of the A10 and only lost by 3 in Gtown. Very nice stuff.
4. College of Charleston - Very impressive numbers and a solid profile overall. Close losses at UNC, Clemson, and Maryland build character, and the road win in Tennessee should stand up.
3. Oakland - This is a team you should watch for in March. They won at Tennessee and lost by just 1 to Michigan St, and they've already played four games against other tourney teams too.
2. Belmont - Definitely a very legit team. Senior laden squad, been there before. They've lost 3 games by single digits at Tenn and Vandy and are just slaughtering all other competition. You WILL hear from this team in March.
1. St Mary's - Not sure if this really qualifies as a sleeper but clearly the best team on this list. They lost by just 1 at BYU and also lost at SD St and Vandy but are throttling teams otherwise and are top 10 in the nation in points, assists, and field goal percentage. Definite sweet 16 threat.

Sunday, January 23, 2011

First college hoops rankings

So I havent really paid any attention to college hoops this season. I've probably seen the ending of like 5 games. But basically I came to this today with an utterly clean slate. I have an idea who the top 5 or so teams are in the rankings, but I know very little. And I made myself make this entire rankings without checking out the national rankings, even now as I type this I still don't know. I know very little about what expectations were going into the year or even who is on what team, so I'm going almost entirely off of empirical data. So here are my rankings and then a comment, esp if it turns out that my ranking is far off from national perception.

1. Pittsburgh - Only one loss, a solid one, and 3 giant wins over Texas, UConn, and Cuse. Easy #1.
2. UConn - Two giant wins over Nova and @Texas plus also wins against UK, Tenn, and Michigan State. And the leader in the player of the year race. Heck of a profile. No idea how this team is only #8 in the polls.
3. Texas - Only #10 in the polls but two of the three losses are to my #1 and #2 teams. No one in the nation has a better pair of road wins, at Kansas and at Michigan State.
4. Nova - Two good losses and the monster win at Syracuse this weekend.
5. Cuse - A little overrated, just because they haven't done much yet. No road tests and home wins against NDame and Cincy only get you so far. And yes, 4 of my 5 teams are Big East.

6. Duke - Poor Michigan St has lost to 4 of my top 6 teams including Duke. But the other "big" wins are against teams who were more highly regarded then than now, and the ACC is incredibly weak, so jury's still a little bit out.
7. Kansas - No win yet against a sure tourney team, though probably Arizona or UCLA make it. Still, the 2nd half disaster at home against Texas leaves some question marks.
8. SD St - Not a lot of big name wins, but wins against Wichita and St Mary's and at Gonzaga are very strong. We'll see how they play on the road in Provo this week.
9. Ohio St - Yeah... not my #1. Sorry nation. They haven't lost, but have they played anyone? They have road wins against Illinois and both Florida state schools. Solid, but I'm unconvinced. I'm much lower on all the Big Ten teams than the rest of the country.
10. BYU - Like SD St, a surprisingly strong profile. Both these teams are going to finish up with 3-4 losses and seeds in the same range in March.

11. Notre Dame - Only 16th nationally and they do have some losses they shouldn't, but man they have a lot of good wins. Wisc, Gonz, Gtown, Cincy, Marq, and UConn are a nice slate to throw up there. Need to bone up on the road in a bad way though.
12. Kentucky - Not overrated. Not underrated. Just rated.
13. Texas A&M - Nice wins against Washington and Mizzou, but like ND, need to win on the road.
14. Mich St - Probably will be barely in the national top 25, but can't we just ignore the losses to UConn, Texas, Cuse, and Duke? I mean, come on, schedule maker! Take those four away and this is still the 2nd best Big 10 team.
15. Washington - Pac 10 is not as bad as the nation thinks. Good for you JJ. Washington has a solid profile and good road conference wins too. They could compile a pretty strong record.

16. Tennessee - Not surprisingly, this team is nowhere near the national rankings. They didn't even receive any votes, which means technically they are at best #49 in the nation's ranks. And yeah, there are some ugly looking losses... but don't those offset pretty well two wins against Pitt and Nova?! As good as any pair of wins in the country plus a loaded slate of underrated nonconference games including good wins against Belmont twice, VCU, and Memphis and losses that aren't so terrible to Oakland and Charleston. Still this team's margin of error is zero for making the tournament.
17. Gtown - Pretty big pair of road wins in Memphis and Mizzou. Not a great Big East start but plenty of time still to see what they've got. Underrated nationally.
18. Mizzou
19. Cincy - Neither of those two teams have really proven a lot for better or worse yet. Why is Mizzou ranked 12 spots higher?
20. Florida - A couple really ugly losses, but nice road wins in Xavier, Tennessee, and FSU.

21. West Va
22. Purdue
23. Wisc - Big Ten is very overrated. These teams have beaten no one.
24. Fla St - On the strength of the Duke win.
25. Vandy - Yep, four SEC teams in the top 25. I was surprised.

Public perception has Big 10 as a strong 2nd best conference behind Big East. I have them about equal to the "struggling" SEC overall. Big 12 is definitely 2nd best for me so far.

Games to keep an eye on this week... Rankings mine. I have Marquette as a big mover this week. Possibly two huge home wins and could jump from NR to #15 range:

M - 11 ND @ 1 Pitt
T - 2 UConn @ Marq... 21 Pur @ 9 Oh St
W - 8 SD St @ 10 BYU... 21 WVa @ Lville
R - St Mary @ Gonz... UCLA @ Ari
S - 2 Syr @ Marq... 17 Gtown @ 4 Nova... 18 Mizz @ 3 Tex... 21 WVa @ 19 Cin... Xav @ Rich

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Aussie Open

One of the top 5 seeds will win the Australian Open. This is not a cop out pick, just what will happen. Tennis, especially the Grand Slams, usually rides on the momentum gained coming into the tournament. With not a whole lot of tournament play before the Aussie Open, it comes down to talent. The top 5 are the top 5 for a reason. Nadal is probably the best player in the world right now, and I say probably only because I am a Federer fan. Nadal can serve decently well, has KILLER ground strokes, and is one of the fastest guys in tennis today. This makes him hard to beat. Federer is the smartest player in tennis, and will be hard to beat. It's cliche to pick them in the final, but I am going to have to do that. I am taking Nadal, and he might be the pick in all 4 Grand Slams this year, because he is just that good.

The saddest part for me about tennis is this: American tennis is in a pathetic state. Seriously, the Americans in this tournament have zero chance at winning anything. Andy Roddick is a solid player, but he won't win another Grand Slam, he's not consistent enough with his ground strokes. John Isner is probably our best hope, but I think he has a LOT of work to become a great player. I am hoping we have the next Agassi coming soon, because I hate not having a decent American player to cheer for.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

My boys...

The Hawks lost...a game they could have easily won...here's why they lost:

1) Big Play Babs failed to capitalize on Cutler - Babineaux had 2 first half picks he missed, and one of those was a 14 point swing as they scored not long after that. I mean, Cutler threw it RIGHT TO HIM! Those 2 picks could have easily swung the outcome.

2) Couldn't catch - Hass played GREAT. Last week his WRs caught the ball, this week not so much. They couldn't get separation, and couldn't hold on when Hass would hit them in the hands. Not that Matt couldn't have been better per say, but the drops and lack of separation didn't help him at all.

3) Line of Scrimmage - Dominated on both sides, the defensive line did a lot better than the O-line, especially in the 2nd half. But that being said, they still got manhandled. Our run game was non-existent, unlike last week, and it was just a sad showing. Must be better than that to have a chance to win...

4) Special teams - John Ryan didn't punt well, and while Hester only had maybe 1 good return, it was a momentum boost for the team that had all the momentum all game, and demoralized an already overwhelmed Hawks team.

5) 10 AM start - One of the most over-talked about aspects of West Coast teams, I really think that they were affected by it. They didn't look ready to start, and didn't look like they were awake or anything.

6) Tackling - 'nuff said...

I was really up and hoping for a win, hosting an NFC Championship